1960—2015年中國(guó)冬半年極端降溫過(guò)程事件的時(shí)空演變特征

doi:10.3969/2020jms.0015

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1960—2015年中國(guó)冬半年極端降溫過(guò)程事件的時(shí)空演變特征
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                        10.3969/2020jms.0015
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):210044
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研究項(xiàng)目（41975073）；江蘇省優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)項(xiàng)目（PAPD）

Spatial and temporal evolution features of cooling extremes in China during winter half year from 1960 to 2015

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摘要:

利用1960-2015年中國(guó)2 474個(gè)站點(diǎn)的逐日最低氣溫資料，采用REOF方法將中國(guó)分為7個(gè)區(qū)域，通過(guò)對(duì)每個(gè)區(qū)域內(nèi)所有站點(diǎn)降溫閾值進(jìn)行平均，得到了7個(gè)降溫閾值。當(dāng)某區(qū)域內(nèi)測(cè)站單日降溫幅度超過(guò)區(qū)域平均閾值時(shí)，認(rèn)為該測(cè)站發(fā)生一次極端降溫事件。7個(gè)區(qū)域降溫平均閾值各異，總體呈北大南小特征，最大降溫-10.6℃，最小-7.6℃。根據(jù)上述定義，研究了中國(guó)冬半年極端降溫過(guò)程事件的時(shí)空演變特征。結(jié)果表明：極端降溫事件發(fā)生頻數(shù)呈北多南少的空間分布。北部地區(qū)存在多個(gè)頻發(fā)中心，在42°N和35°N附近存在兩個(gè)高頻發(fā)生帶。南部地區(qū)頻數(shù)呈一定的帶狀分布，在25°N附近發(fā)生該事件的頻率亦高于南部其他地區(qū)。近56 a來(lái)，極端降溫事件頻數(shù)變化總體呈減少趨勢(shì)，前期較明顯，中后期趨于穩(wěn)定。各年代頻數(shù)的空間分布基本一致，但前期總體表現(xiàn)為北部增多。而在1990s則轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槟县?fù)北正的空間分布，后期中部及沿海地區(qū)發(fā)生了趨勢(shì)符號(hào)的年代際改變。進(jìn)一步分析表明，各區(qū)域極端降溫頻數(shù)突變的年份均不一致且突變前后的頻數(shù)存在較大差異。這些結(jié)果可為深刻認(rèn)識(shí)極端低溫事件的變化規(guī)律和氣候預(yù)測(cè)提供線索。

Abstract:

Based on the daily minimum temperature of 2 474 stations in China from 1960 to 2015, seven climatic regions were divided by REOF method. Regional averages of the thresholds of cooling extent of temperature over seven regions, seven cooling thresholds were obtained. The average temperature thresholds of the seven regions are different and get smaller from north to south, with a maximum decrease of 10.6℃ and a minimum of 7.6℃. The Cooling Extremes (CE) were defined and the temporal and spatial features of extreme cooling events in winter half year were studied. The results show that there is a significant spatial difference in occurrences of cooling extremes in the half year of winter, presenting a spatial pattern of occurrences with more occurrences in the north whereas less occurrences in the south. There are multiple centers with high frequency in the northern and two high-frequency zones around 42°N and 35°N. The occurrence frequency near 25°N is higher than in other parts of the south. Over the past 56 years, the CE frequency has a decreasing trend, which is more clearly seen in the earlier period. The spatial distribution of frequencies in each decade looks similar to each other. The abrupt changes in frequency of CE events are not uniform in spatial. In some regions, the time when the abrupt changes occur is earlier but in other regions later. These results can provide clues for deep understanding of the law of extreme low temperature events and climate prediction.

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徐蒙,管兆勇,蔡倩.1960—2015年中國(guó)冬半年極端降溫過(guò)程事件的時(shí)空演變特征.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(6):733-743 XU Meng, GUAN Zhaoyong, CAI Qian. Spatial and temporal evolution features of cooling extremes in China during winter half year from 1960 to 2015. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(6):733-743

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收稿日期:2019-07-16
最后修改日期:2020-02-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-01-12
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