使用ECMWF集合預報數(shù)據(jù)集估計全球季節(jié)平均氣候異常的潛在可預報性

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2003年第卷第4期 >379-391. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.00**

使用ECMWF集合預報數(shù)據(jù)集估計全球季節(jié)平均氣候異常的潛在可預報性
DOI:
                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號:P435
基金項目:《國家重點基礎研究發(fā)展規(guī)劃》G19980 4 0 90 0項目，國家自然科學基金 4 0 2 330 2 8和 4 0 0 75 0 17項目

POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL MEAN CLIMATE ANOMALY ASSESSED FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLE SEASONAL FORECASTS

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問統(tǒng)計

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

資源附件

文章評論

摘要:

利用ECMWF PROVOST項目產生的在給定海表溫度強迫下的150(1979～1993)季節(jié)集合預報數(shù)據(jù)集，分析揭示了季節(jié)平均氣候異常潛在可預報性的全球分布。首先，利用可再現(xiàn)的強迫模態(tài)重建集合資料場，在Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)檢驗的基礎上定義潛在可預報性指數(shù)PU^k，然后，將重建場的PU^k與重建場貢獻于集合平均的方差比結合，提出了定量估計局地潛在可預報性的指數(shù)PI。以全球850hPa溫度季節(jié)平均異常場為例，對PI進行定量計算表明：不僅大部分熱帶地區(qū)，而且熱帶外一些地區(qū)的季節(jié)平均氣

Abstract:

The potential predictability of the seasonal mean climate anomaly has been asses sed by using the dataset of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF) ensemble seasonal forecasts for the period 1979～1993.The forecasts were created with prescribed observed sea surface temperature taken from ECMWF re-an alysis and updated daily in the forecasts. By reconstruct ing the ensemble in terms of reproducible forced modes,and by defining a predict ive utility index (PUK) based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test,a new quant itative measure for evaluating potential predictability,i.e.the predictability i ndex (PI),which combines PUk with the local variance contribution to ensemble mean,was proposed.The quantitative analysis with PI for the 850 hPa temperature has shown that the seasonal mean anomalies over not only most of the tropical re gions but some extratropical regions are predictable.Extratropical predictable r egions are found mainly over North America,south Africa and part of Asian monsoo n region.Interestingly,the potential predictability over some extratropical regi ons like northern China,middle Asia and southern part of North America is contro lled by the non-ENSO forcing,although the ENSO forcing generally dominates most of the predictable regions.The results also indicate that the predictable regio ns have obvious seasonality.Summer possesses the largest areas with high PI valu es while winter possesses the smallest.The results have been compared with other methods,which shows that the PI analysis proposed here can extract more predicta ble information especially for the extratropical regions.

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

引用本文

文彩虹,楊修群.使用ECMWF集合預報數(shù)據(jù)集估計全球季節(jié)平均氣候異常的潛在可預報性.氣象科學,2003,(4):379-391 Wen Caihong, Yang Xiuqun. POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL MEAN CLIMATE ANOMALY ASSESSED FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLE SEASONAL FORECASTS. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2003,(4):379-391

復制

文章指標

點擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2002-10-18
最后修改日期:
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期:
出版日期:

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關視頻

文章指標

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關視頻

文章指標

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说