Abstract:By using the method of the negative accumulative temperature and the average tem pe rature in the winter,the classification grade index of the cold and warm winter type is given;by using circulation and sea temperature,the f orecast pattern is established, the filter principle is used to develop the roll ing fore cast pattern.by operating coefficients modificatory function,the constant of forecast factor coefficients bacame the variable,so that forecast error decreases. In the text,combining the weather forecast,the agroclimatology and the agricult ure,the system of the cold and warm winter and the disaster countermeasure syste m of some winterized crops lead to better foreacast effect in recent 2 years.