福建伏旱期旱澇環(huán)流特征及其預(yù)測探討

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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福建伏旱期旱澇環(huán)流特征及其預(yù)測探討
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P456.3
基金項(xiàng)目:福建省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目資助 (編號D0 2 10 0 19)

DISCUSSION ON FORECAST OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD CIRCUMFLUENCE CHARACTER IN HOT SEASONS OF FUJIAN

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本文取1960～2000年全省25個代表站7月降水資料和北半球500hPa高度場資料、以及500hPa面上的極渦、中緯度環(huán)流、青藏高原高度場(即高原地區(qū)等壓面高度場)、副熱帶高壓等74個環(huán)流指數(shù)為素材；首先標(biāo)定伏旱期降水的異常指數(shù)和嚴(yán)重旱澇年例，其次分析嚴(yán)重旱澇年例的500hPa環(huán)流背景，最后揭示預(yù)測概念模型，得出秋冬季北半球副熱帶高壓，歐亞經(jīng)向環(huán)流和青藏高原高度場的變化是預(yù)測福建伏旱期降水的強(qiáng)信號因子。

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The precipitation data of 25 representative meteorological stations in Fujian,500hpa height in northern hemisphere, polar vortex, meso-latitude circu mfluence, Tibetan plateau height ,subtropical high and so on circumfluence index during July from 1960 to 2000 were selected.Firstly, the anomalous index and y e ars of precipitation in hot season were defined.Secondly,the 500 hPa circumflue nce background of severity drought and flood years were analysed.Finally,the for ecast concept model was exposed. The primary results are found: (1) The circumfluence characters in drought years are found: Polar vortex of n orth ern hemisphere is feeble, Ural blocking high is evident, the p ath of cold air is partial to be east, subtropical high of West-Pacific is stro ng, meso-latitude height on East-Asia is low,the trough on meso-Pacif ic increases,the anomaly of 500 hPa at high,median,low latitude on East-Asia region is positive ,negative and positive,respectively. (2）The circumfluence characters in flood years are found:Polar vortex of nort hern hemisphere is strong, Ural blocking high is not evident, the path of c old air is partial to be west, subtropical high of West-Pacific is feeble,meso- latitude height on East-Asia is high,the trough on meso-Pacific de creases, the anomaly of 500 hPa at high,median,low latitude on East-Asia r egion is negative,positive and negative,respectively. (3）The subtropical high in northern hemisphere in autumn-winter，the longit ude circumfluence on Europe-Asia region and Tibetan plateau height change are stro ng signal gene for forecast of precipitation in hot season of Fujian.

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許金鏡,溫珍治,楊林,王毅仁.福建伏旱期旱澇環(huán)流特征及其預(yù)測探討.氣象科學(xué),2004,(2):233-239 Xu Jinjing, Wen Zhenzhi, Yang Lin, Wang Yiren. DISCUSSION ON FORECAST OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD CIRCUMFLUENCE CHARACTER IN HOT SEASONS OF FUJIAN. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2004,(2):233-239

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收稿日期:2002-11-18
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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说