1948～2001年全球陸地12～2月降水旱澇長期變化

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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1948～2001年全球陸地12～2月降水旱澇長期變化
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P461，3
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金 (40 2 75 0 2 8)資助

SECULAR VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE OF FLOOD /DROUGHT OF GLOBAL LAND IN DEC.-FEB.DURING 1948-2001

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本文利用1948～2001全球陸地月降水資料(PREC／L)，研究了全球、北、南半球及歐亞、非洲、澳洲、北美、南美和南極大陸6個大尺度區(qū)域12～2月的降水趨勢變化及早澇氣候變化。結(jié)果表明：全球、南、北半球的12～2月的陸面降水有明顯的年代際變化，全球12～2月降水量從1975年開始有明顯的下降趨勢，回歸系數(shù)約為-0．017mm／a。北半球有明顯的降水減少，約為-0．028mm／a，南半球12～2月降水表現(xiàn)為極微弱的下降趨勢，且在統(tǒng)計上是不顯著的。劃分出了全球、南北半球、全球6個大尺度區(qū)域12～2月旱澇年，

Abstract:

Based on global land monthly precipitation dataset PREC/L during the period of 1948-2001, the flood/drought and the secular trend variation of precipitation of global, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ,the Southern Hemisphere(SH), Eurasia, Africa, Australia, North America, South America and Antarctica in December-February (DJF) are investigated. The results indicate that the precipitation of global, NH and SH experienced decadal change: a minus-trend from 1974s global precipitation for DJF, regression coefficient is -0.017 mm/a. The precipitation of Northern Hemisphere has a significant negative trend, lapse rate of precipitation during DJF is -0.028 mm/a .for the Southern Hemisphere , but it hasn't pass the statistical significance .The flood/drought years are picked out in 1948-2001 for DJF over global, Northern and Southern Hemisphere, six large-scale areas, the results point out there is significant decadal change in the flood/drought years of global ,NH and SH in DJF,during 1940s-1970s global flood in DJF occurred frequently and from 1970s-1990s global drought in DJF occurred frequently. The flood/drought characteristics of Northern Hemisphere are agreed with ones of the global. There is no obvious correlation between the Northern and Southern Hemispheric flood/drought in DJF. Eurasia, North America, Antarctica have significant interdecadal change of the flood/drought during DJF. Global has a significant contrast of rainfall between flood/drought years. The correlations among six large-scale areas precipitation are analysed. Study shows that the relationships of precipitation may exist among the Eurasia and Africa (The correlation coefficients is -0.35), North America and Eurasia , South America and and Australia.

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高鴻,施能,白彬人,王穎.1948～2001年全球陸地12～2月降水旱澇長期變化.氣象科學(xué),2004,(4):387-397 Gao Hong, Shi Neng, Bai Binren, Wang Ying. SECULAR VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE OF FLOOD /DROUGHT OF GLOBAL LAND IN DEC.-FEB. DURING 1948-2001. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2004,(4):387-397

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收稿日期:2003-08-14
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