基于增長(zhǎng)模繁殖法的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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基于增長(zhǎng)模繁殖法的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P456.7
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家研究發(fā)展基金;國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室基金

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS BASED ON THE BGM METHOD

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摘要:

利用微機(jī)版本的T63L9全球譜模式,首先進(jìn)行了用增長(zhǎng)模繁殖法(BGM)制作集合預(yù)報(bào)的方案設(shè)計(jì),然后用確定的方案進(jìn)行了中期數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)。繁殖循環(huán)的初始擾動(dòng)為T(mén)63L9譜模式各層24 h預(yù)報(bào)的均方根誤差乘隨機(jī)數(shù),該隨機(jī)數(shù)服從[-1, 1]區(qū)間上的均勻分布,繁殖循環(huán)每12 h 1次,繁殖循環(huán)的周期為3 d,集合成員為9個(gè)。結(jié)果表明:在1~8 d的預(yù)報(bào)中,集合預(yù)報(bào)可以比控制預(yù)報(bào)的時(shí)效延長(zhǎng)1 d,集合預(yù)報(bào)無(wú)論是距平相關(guān)系數(shù)還是預(yù)報(bào)均方根誤差都明顯優(yōu)于控制預(yù)報(bào),集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)形勢(shì)場(chǎng)的預(yù)報(bào)較控制預(yù)報(bào)更為接近實(shí)況分析場(chǎng)。

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Firstly, a scheme of ensemble forecasting using the method of breeding of growing mode (BGM) is designed, using the global spectral model T63L9 based on microcomputer. Secondly, some experiments of ensemble forecast about medium-range numerical forecasting are done using the scheme. The first day's forecasting error of the model times random number is regarded as the initial disturbance of the breeding cycles and these random numbers meet uniform distribution between 1 and +1. The breeding period is 12h, so twice one day, the total time of breeding is 3 days and the number of ensemble members is 9. Ensemble forecast is made by the equivalent weight average with 9 members. Results show that from the 1st day to 8th day's forecasting, the forecast term from ensemble forecasting is one day longer than that from control forecast. Within 8 days, whether for anomaly correlation coefficient or forecasting rmse error, the ensemble forecasting is better than control forecasting and the posture field from ensemble forecasting is more similar to analysis field than that from control forecast.

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關(guān)吉平,張立鳳.基于增長(zhǎng)模繁殖法的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2006,(3):272-278 Guan Jiping, Zhang Lifeng. ENSEMBLE FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS BASED ON THE BGM METHOD. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2006,(3):272-278

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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说