山東省近40a來的氣溫和降水變化趨勢分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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山東省近40a來的氣溫和降水變化趨勢分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P467
基金項(xiàng)目:北京師范大學(xué)京師學(xué)者特聘教授啟動(dòng)經(jīng)費(fèi)

LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

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本文利用非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了山東省15個(gè)站點(diǎn)近40 a(1958—1998)來氣溫和降水的長期變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明:全省氣溫除西南的莘縣、兗州有下降趨勢外,大部分地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,全省平均上升0.06℃/10a。分季情況為:春季和冬季氣溫有上升趨勢,其中冬季氣溫上升對全省氣溫上升的貢獻(xiàn)率最大。夏季氣溫基本保持不變,秋季氣溫有下降趨勢。全省除濟(jì)南降水量呈略微上升趨勢外,其余地區(qū)的降水傾向率均為負(fù)值,全省的降水傾向率為-3.05 mm/a。表明山東省自1960年以來,年均降水量呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢。減少幅度東南部大于西北部,以東南沿海平均減少幅度最大。

Abstract:

The Mann-Kendall statistic test is a rank-based, non-parametric method. It has been widely used to estimate the significance of long-term trends in hydro-meteorological time series such as water quality, streamflow, temperature, and precipitation, etc. Temperature and precipitation are two kinds of the most important climate factors. It is of great importance for the development of economics and agriculture to analyze the long-term trends of temperature and precipitation. The long-term trend of temperature and precipitation in Shandong Province was analyzed in this paper. The data used in this paper were observed at 15 meteorological stations. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to annual and monthly temperature and precipitation time series. The results show that the temperature exhibited an increasing trend during the past 40 years, especially in winter, during which the slope was 036 ℃/(10a).The 1990s is the warmest periods in the past 40 years, and the eastern region of the study area show more obvious increasing trend. The precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trend and the slope is 305mm/a. The north-eastern area of Shandong Province contributed the most to decreasing trend of the precipitation.

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徐宗學(xué),孟翠玲,趙芳芳.山東省近40a來的氣溫和降水變化趨勢分析.氣象科學(xué),2007,(4):387-393 Xu Zongxue, Meng Cuiling, Zhao Fangfang. LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2007,(4):387-393

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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说