上海區(qū)域降水集合預報系統(tǒng)改進的對比試驗

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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上海區(qū)域降水集合預報系統(tǒng)改進的對比試驗
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P43
基金項目:國家自然科學基金;上海市氣象局資助項目

THE COMPARING EXPERIMENT OF IMPROVING THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR SHANGHAI REGIONAL PRECIPITATION

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以2005年8月開始運行的、8個成員的上海區(qū)域降水集合預報系統(tǒng)為基礎,設計2個對比試驗方案,進行了3個月(2005年9—11月)的平行對比試驗。對比試驗將成員從8個增加至12個,系統(tǒng)的8個成員與試驗一增加的成員都從預報模式的不確定性出發(fā)形成,試驗二增加的成員考慮了模式初始條件的不確定性。對試驗結果進行了檢驗與分析,并與控制試驗結果進行比較。結果顯示:增加集合成員數可以增大系統(tǒng)發(fā)散度,但對比試驗仍存在系統(tǒng)發(fā)散度偏小的問題;同時考慮預報模式與初始條件不確定性的試驗二的降水集合平均預報效果與降水概率預報效果都好于只考慮預報模式不確定性的試驗一,也好于控制試驗,試驗一的降水集合平均預報效果總體上則比控制試驗差,降水概率預報效果也不理想。采用試驗二方案對系統(tǒng)進行改進后的整體預報效果較改進前有提高。

Abstract:

Two comparing test schemes are designed based on the operational ensemble prediction system for Shanghai regional precipitation. The system has eight members and started operating at Aug.1, 2005. According to the test schemes, parallel comparing tests were made during Sept. and Nov. 2005. In comparing tests, members are added from eight to twelve. The eight members in the system and the added members in test 1 are created according to the model uncertainty. The added members in test 2 are created according to the initial condition uncertainty. Comparing test results are verified and compared with the control test results. The results show although adding members can enlarge the spread, comparing tests still have the problem of too small spread. The ensemble mean forecasts and probability forecasts of test 2 in which both model uncertainty and initial condition uncertainty is considered are better than that of test 1 in which only model uncertainty is considered. The ensemble mean forecasts and probability forecasts of test 2 are also better than that of the control test. On the contrary, the ensemble mean forecasts of test 1 are worse than that of the control test. The probability forecasts of test 2 are not good either. The system is improved according to the scheme of test 2. The new system can offer a better precipitation forecasting than the old system.

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王晨稀,姚建群,梁旭東.上海區(qū)域降水集合預報系統(tǒng)改進的對比試驗.氣象科學,2007,(5):481-487 Wang Chenxi, Yao Jianqun, Liang Xudong. THE COMPARING EXPERIMENT OF IMPROVING THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR SHANGHAI REGIONAL PRECIPITATION. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2007,(5):481-487

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收稿日期:2006-02-25
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