基于模糊聚類分型的數(shù)值產(chǎn)品暴雨預(yù)報(bào)釋用方法

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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基于模糊聚類分型的數(shù)值產(chǎn)品暴雨預(yù)報(bào)釋用方法
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P426.62
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省社會(huì)發(fā)展項(xiàng)目

A heavy rainfall forecast method based on fuzzy cluster typing by using application and interpretation of NWP

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本文闡述了一種基于數(shù)值產(chǎn)品的預(yù)報(bào)信息場(chǎng)的暴雨預(yù)報(bào)釋用方法,提出了對(duì)暴雨歷史樣本形勢(shì)場(chǎng)使用模糊聚類的客觀分型技術(shù),用條件概率讓小概率事件成為相對(duì)的大概率,更有利于暴雨指標(biāo)的提煉;該釋用方法包含的信息量全面,以歷史暴雨樣本同期的包含大氣三維空間壓、溫、濕、風(fēng)及其釋演的物理量,構(gòu)建出25個(gè)數(shù)值產(chǎn)品參數(shù)指標(biāo)作為鑒別暴雨的基礎(chǔ),同時(shí)也勾劃出各暴雨型發(fā)生期大氣高溫、高濕、對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定等機(jī)理結(jié)構(gòu)特征,且均有具體物理量數(shù)據(jù)表述.預(yù)報(bào)方法的研究過程中探索了某些物理量場(chǎng)預(yù)報(bào)暴雨落區(qū)的規(guī)律;建立了暴雨預(yù)報(bào)工具,充分利用了現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)中的質(zhì)量較好的預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品設(shè)立預(yù)報(bào)工具的起報(bào)條件,減少了暴雨空?qǐng)?bào)率.

Abstract:

The paper investigated a heavy rainfall forecast method of application and interpretation NWF in accordance with its forecasting fields. An objective fuzzy cluster typing technique for heavy rainfall history data was proposed, in which a small probability turned into large by using condition probability in favor of trying out the heavy rainfall indexes. The method summed up 25 parameter indexes to diagnose heavy rainfall according to historical samples for same period which include pressure, temperature, humidity, wind and interrelated physical quantities in the 3D space of atmosphere, and developed the mechanism and the atmosphere structure feature such as high temperature, high humidity and convective instability described by idiographic physical factors. In addition, the study explored some rules of forecasting heavy rainfall area by means of specifically physical quantities. A rainstorm forecast tool was set up, of which the result of NWP operation in existence can be regarded as the start-up condition for reducing rainstorm false rate of forecast.

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嚴(yán)明良,王錳,于波,范淦清.基于模糊聚類分型的數(shù)值產(chǎn)品暴雨預(yù)報(bào)釋用方法.氣象科學(xué),2008,(5):581-585 Yan Mingling, Wang Meng, Yu Bo, Fan Ganqing. A heavy rainfall forecast method based on fuzzy cluster typing by using application and interpretation of NWP. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2008,(5):581-585

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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说