小麥赤霉病氣象條件適宜程度等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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小麥赤霉病氣象條件適宜程度等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):S165.28
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家“863”資助項(xiàng)目（2006AA10Z203）;中國(guó)氣象局“中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建設(shè)”項(xiàng)目

Prediction of the adaptability category of meteorological conditions for wheat head blight

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利用1965—2006年氣象、赤霉病資料，分析赤霉病感病期間各氣象要素對(duì)赤霉病的誘發(fā)程度，定義滿足一定誘發(fā)條件的日子為赤霉病誘發(fā)致病日。根據(jù)最優(yōu)化技術(shù)二維尋優(yōu)的變量輪換原理，計(jì)算赤霉病感病期間逐日誘發(fā)修正系數(shù)、赤霉病誘發(fā)致病日的持續(xù)時(shí)間修正系數(shù)，建立促病指數(shù)模型，由此判別赤霉病氣象條件適宜程度及發(fā)生的等級(jí)。2007年、2008年和2009年試報(bào)結(jié)果與實(shí)況相符。應(yīng)用本研究方法，可動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)赤霉病氣象條件適宜程度的等級(jí)，由此推測(cè)赤霉病可能流行的程度，科學(xué)防治赤霉病。

Abstract:

The effects of individual meteorological variables on wheat head blight outbreak during the period of feasible wheat head blight infection were investigated using historical data of meteorology and state of wheat head blight during the period from 1965 to 2006 for the region south of Huaihe River, Jiangsu province. A day with meteorological conditions favorable for the infection and outbreak of wheat head blight is defined as the inducing-day of wheat head blight. The cyclic variable method of two-dimensional optimization was used to determine two coefficients, which correct the effects of the date and duration of inducing day on the seriousness of wheat head blight, respectively. These correction coefficients were integrated into a model calculating the inducing-index of wheat head blight. Adaptability of meteorological conditions for wheat head blight and the possible occurrence category of wheat head blight were determined according to the calculated inducing-index. In 2007,2008,2009, the occurrence categories predicted by the model agreed with measurements well. The algorithm developed in this study can be practically used to dynamically monitor the adaptability of meteorological conditions for the infection and outbreak of wheat head blight and predict the possible seriousness of wheat head blight. It can act as a useful tool for the prevention and control of wheat head blight.

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張旭暉,高蘋,居為民,張芳,王建林.小麥赤霉病氣象條件適宜程度等級(jí)預(yù)報(bào).氣象科學(xué),2009,(4):552-556 Zhang Xuhui,Gao Ping, Ju Weimin, Zhang Fang, Wang Jianlin. Prediction of the adaptability category of meteorological conditions for wheat head blight. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2009,(4):552-556

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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说