東北冷渦南落型強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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東北冷渦南落型強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P456
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省氣象局2004年重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“泰州市春秋季120小時(shí)內(nèi)天氣要素相似預(yù)報(bào)模式（200414）”

Characteristic condition analysis for forecasting convective weather of upper cold falling vortex

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通過(guò)2005—2008年4—6月Micaps資料，查找500 hPa東北有冷渦，500 hPa和700 hPa江蘇境內(nèi)為大片的西北氣流，當(dāng)天午后到夜里出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的若干典型個(gè)例，借助Micaps系統(tǒng)通過(guò)對(duì)一些個(gè)例的物理量資料分析，得出它們共同的發(fā)生強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的機(jī)理；同時(shí)還分析得出診斷該類對(duì)流天氣的不太適合使用的物理量和較適合使用的物理量；并分析個(gè)例的大氣探空層結(jié)曲線，得出它們的對(duì)流層結(jié)與其它類型的區(qū)別，并剖析它們的一日轉(zhuǎn)變情況；同時(shí)用Q矢量鋒生函數(shù)方法分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)低層強(qiáng)鋒生區(qū)域與強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣區(qū)域有較好的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，鋒生函數(shù)正值中心區(qū)域常出現(xiàn)個(gè)別站龍卷或大范圍冰雹。

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Using Micaps material from April to June from 2005 to 2008 to choose a lot of examples with upper cold vortex in North China or Northeast of China， and over large area with northwest wind both at 500 hPa and at 700 hPa over Jiangsu Province，and with convective weather happened from afternoon to night.In order to know the mechanism of occurring heavy convective weather, the physical process analysis is done with the aid of Micaps 30. We can find the fit and unfit physical quantities of diagnosing the convective weather.We carried out case study of stratification curves and found out the difference in their convective stratifications from other types and analysed the change of observed soundings during a day. Based on Q vector frontogenesis function method ，those typical examples were analyzed. Result shows that there is a good corresponding relationships between strong frontogenesis area and heavy convective weather area in low atmosphere， tornado or large area hail often happens in the frontogenesis function positive center area.

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徐為進(jìn),呂冬紅,沈利峰,劉方,王海青.東北冷渦南落型強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)分析.氣象科學(xué),2009,(5):618-624 Xu Weijin,Lü Donghong, Shen Lifeng, Liu Fang, Wang Haiqing. Characteristic condition analysis for forecasting convective weather of upper cold falling vortex. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2009,(5):618-624

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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说