中國東部冬季氣溫異常的主模態(tài)與大氣環(huán)流的關(guān)系

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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中國東部冬季氣溫異常的主模態(tài)與大氣環(huán)流的關(guān)系
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金(40775057)

Relationship between main mode of the winter air temperature anomaly and atmospheric circulation in east China

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利用中國東部季風(fēng)區(qū)375個(gè)測站，1961-2006年歷年平均地面氣溫資料，采用EOF、SVD、相關(guān)分析等方法，分析了中國東部季風(fēng)區(qū)冬季氣溫與500hPa高度場異常變化的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明：影響冬季氣溫的關(guān)鍵區(qū)有兩個(gè)，皆為顯著正相關(guān)；SVD分析表明：烏山脊弱，東亞槽淺，緯向環(huán)流偏強(qiáng)，經(jīng)向環(huán)流偏弱，極渦面積偏小，使南下冷空氣偏少，冬季氣溫易偏高。上年7月北大西洋高壓異常偏強(qiáng)（偏弱），次年冬季氣溫將會異常偏暖（偏冷），北大西洋前期高度場與氣溫普遍有密切的關(guān)系，主要影響長江流域及其以北的季風(fēng)中北部區(qū)；建立了氣溫距平與北大西洋關(guān)鍵區(qū)上年7月高度距平的關(guān)系，并建立了均生函數(shù)模型，預(yù)測了未來20 a的氣溫變化趨勢。

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Using the mean surface air temperature data during 1961-2006 of 375 stations in the east monsoon area in China and methods of EOF,SVD,correlation analysis, average value generating function method, the authors analyzed the relationship of temperature with height-field changes anomaly at 500 hPa and circulation feature in east China, and forecasted the change tendency of winter average air temperature in the future 20 a. The main results are as follows: there are two key areas which influence winter air temperature, both of the areas were remarkable positive correlation; the SVD analysis shows that the Ural ridge was weak, the east Asia trough was shallow, the zonal circulation was strong, the meridional circulation was weak, the area of polar vorticity was small, leading cold air was lack, winter temperature was high as well, namely the North Atlantic Ocean high pressure was exceptionally strong(weak) in last July, the temperature was high(low)in winter of the year, there were close relation to antecedent height-field and temperature in North Atlantic Ocean, it mainly influenced changing valley and middle-north monsoon area in north of it;it established the relationship between temperature and height departures in North Atlantic Ocean key area in the last July, and established function mode, which can be used to forecast the temperature change tendency in the future 20 a.

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.中國東部冬季氣溫異常的主模態(tài)與大氣環(huán)流的關(guān)系.氣象科學(xué),2010,(1):27-33 . Relationship between main mode of the winter air temperature anomaly and atmospheric circulation in east China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(1):27-33

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收稿日期:2008-09-01
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