江蘇省年最大風(fēng)速的時(shí)空分布及突變分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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江蘇省年最大風(fēng)速的時(shí)空分布及突變分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P468.026
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金(40701168),江蘇省氣象局科研開發(fā)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目（K200709）

The spatial and temporal distribution of annual maximum wind speed in Jiangsu province and analyses on its abrupt change

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根據(jù)江蘇省34 a年最大風(fēng)速資料,用EOF、REOF方法研究了江蘇省年最大風(fēng)速的空間分布形式和長期變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明:(1)34 a年最大風(fēng)速基本在11 m／s以上,其中最大值區(qū)位于鹽城的南部和南通的北部,在15 m／s以上。近34 a來具有明顯的波動(dòng),整體上呈減小的趨勢。(2)EOF分解的第一特征向量場空間分布絕大部分為正值,說明其變化具有極好的一致性,第一時(shí)間系數(shù)的變化相當(dāng)于年變化。但是各特征向量場之間的特點(diǎn)相差明顯。(3)REOF分析方法表明其可以被分為5個(gè)區(qū),分別為西北區(qū)、西南區(qū)、東南區(qū)、中部地區(qū)、東北區(qū),各個(gè)區(qū)域的年最大風(fēng)速均呈現(xiàn)減小的趨勢,但是減小的程度各不相同。突變特征各個(gè)區(qū)域表現(xiàn)也不同。

Abstract:

Based on the data of annual maximum wind speed observed at weather stations from 1975 to 2008, by using the statistical methods of EOF and REOF, the spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum wind speed in Jiangsu province have been studied. The results are described as follows: (1) the 34-average maximum wind speed was basically above 11 m／s, the maximum was located in the south of Yancheng and the north of Nantong, the value was above 15 m／s. The annual maximum average wind speed has significant fluctuations and the overall tendency was decreasing. (2) The first mode of EOF for the maximum wind speed showed that in most areas of Jiangsu the value was positive, and that annual maximum wind speeds change had an excellent consistency, and the first coefficient was equivalent to the annual variation of maximum wind speed, at the same time it also had the local characteristics. (3) REOF analysis methods showed that the maximum wind speed in Jiangsu province can be divided into five regions: the northwest region, the southwest region, the southeast region, the middle region, the northeast region of Jiangsu, all regions showed a decreasing tendency, but the degree was various. Meanwhile, the sudden change of annual maximum wind speed was various.

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陳兵,邱輝,趙巧華.江蘇省年最大風(fēng)速的時(shí)空分布及突變分析.氣象科學(xué),2010,(2):214-220 Chen Bing, Qiu Hui, Zhao Qiaohua. The spatial and temporal distribution of annual maximum wind speed in Jiangsu province and analyses on its abrupt change. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(2):214-220

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