海南島一次特大暴雨的數(shù)值研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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海南島一次特大暴雨的數(shù)值研究
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P458.121.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目“我國(guó)南方致洪暴雨監(jiān)測(cè)與預(yù)測(cè)的理論和方法研究”（2004CB418304）

A numerical study on the cause of a heavy rain case over Hainan Province

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利用衛(wèi)星資料、NCEP資料以及AREM模式輸出資料，對(duì)發(fā)生在2008年10月中旬海南島一次大暴雨過(guò)程進(jìn)行了中尺度數(shù)值模擬分析。分析結(jié)果表明：AREM模式較好地模擬了本次大暴雨過(guò)程，當(dāng)初始資料選取NCEP資料時(shí)模擬效果最佳；θse等值線密集區(qū)以及位渦梯度最大區(qū)與暴雨中心相對(duì)應(yīng)；暴雨中心700 hPa以下低層對(duì)應(yīng)條件對(duì)稱(chēng)不穩(wěn)定，其上至600 hPa為對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定；條件對(duì)稱(chēng)不穩(wěn)定對(duì)其上空的對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定有觸發(fā)作用；對(duì)熱源〈Q1〉和水汽匯〈Q2〉分析得出，大值區(qū)與降水分布基本一致，凝結(jié)潛熱的釋放對(duì)大暴雨過(guò)程有反饋?zhàn)饔茫晃粶卮怪逼搅黜?xiàng)對(duì)Q1起決定性作用,位溫局地變化項(xiàng)及水平平流項(xiàng)對(duì) Q1的貢獻(xiàn)不大。在Q2諸分量中，比濕水平平流項(xiàng)和垂直平流項(xiàng)共同作用于Q2，比濕局地變化項(xiàng)影響較小。

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By use of satellite, NCEP reanalysis data and AREM model data, a heavy rain event in Hainan province during October 2008 is analyzed. Results show that the AREM model can effectively simulate the event, especially when NCEP reanalysis data is chosen as the model initial input data. The heavy rain is located near the intensive belt of θse and the maximum potential vorticity gradient on the zero line of MPV1. The conditional symmetry instability is constructed at 700 hPa and the convection instability is constructed at 700 hPa-600 hPa in the high-value region of heavy rain. The conditional symmetry instability is the cause of the declining and ascendant air current in the lower layers and leads to the convection instability in the higher layers than 700 hPa.The high value region of 〈Q1〉 and 〈Q2〉 is basically consistent with the heavy rainfall region. There is a feedback reaction of release of latent energy on the process of heavy rain. The vertical advection of θ plays a key role in Q1, the local variation and the horizontal advection of θ dont have serious impact on Q1. The horizontal advection and vertical advection of q play a main role in Q2, but the local variation of q impacts Q2 only a little.

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劉家峻,余丹丹,劉松濤,張立鳳.海南島一次特大暴雨的數(shù)值研究.氣象科學(xué),2010,(4):495-502 Liu Jiajun, Yu Dandan, Liu Songtao, Zhang Lifeng. A numerical study on the cause of a heavy rain case over Hainan Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(4):495-502

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