太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)東部夏季降水異常的可能影響

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)東部夏季降水異常的可能影響
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P461.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(40705023)

The possible impact of solar activity on summer rainfall anomaly in Eastern China

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太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)與氣候變化的關(guān)系急需深入進(jìn)行探索性研究，本文的分析研究表明，中國(guó)東部夏季降水與太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)有明顯的關(guān)系。強(qiáng)（弱）太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)年，華北平原和東北南部地區(qū)少（多）雨，西北地區(qū)卻多（少）雨，而江淮地區(qū)的夏季降水量也偏多（少）；太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)與夏季的梅雨量存在著既顯著又復(fù)雜的相關(guān)關(guān)系，而且它們間的相關(guān)關(guān)系還隨時(shí)間有年代際變化。強(qiáng)（弱）太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)有利于在中國(guó)上空造成500 hPa位勢(shì)高度出現(xiàn)正（負(fù)）異常，并與夏季降水異常的形勢(shì)較為相配，可認(rèn)為是太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)影響中國(guó)東部降水的重要途經(jīng)。盡管目前尚未形成完整的理論，但基于已有的觀測(cè)和分析研究，作為一個(gè)討論內(nèi)容，我們提出了一些關(guān)于太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)影響天氣氣候變化的初步看法。

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The relationship between the solar activity and climate variation is a noteworthy science question. The analysis of this paper shows there is a distinct relationship between the solar activity and the precipitation over East Asia. During high solar activity period, there is negative summer rainfall anomaly in Northeastern China and positive summer rainfall in Northwestern China and Yangtze-Huai River area. While during the low solar activity period, the situation is opposite. Secondly, in this papar, the correlation relationship between the solar activity and “Meiyu” is also depicted, which is notable and complicated. Its variation is consindered to involve notable decadal signal. Finally, the possible mechanism through which the solar activity affects the precipitation over Eastern China is discussed. The solar activity makes an impact on troposphere circulation pattern. During different solar activity periods, the 500 hPa geo-potential height pattern is quite different. And the geo-potential height anomaly associated with solar activity is closely related to the rainfall anomaly, which can be seen as the possible path through which the sun affects the precipitation over Eastern China. Although the solar-climate relationship needs further study, the preparatory options are brought out in this paper to discuss the possible impact of the solar activity on the climate variation based on the observational data analysis.

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潘靜,李崇銀,顧薇.太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)東部夏季降水異常的可能影響.氣象科學(xué),2010,(5):574-581 PanJing, LiChongyin, GuWe. The possible impact of solar activity on summer rainfall anomaly in Eastern China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(5):574-581

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