全球氣溫趨勢(shì)和近期中國(guó)氣候?yàn)?zāi)害的成因分析和展望

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2010年第卷第5期 >582-590. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.00**

全球氣溫趨勢(shì)和近期中國(guó)氣候?yàn)?zāi)害的成因分析和展望
DOI:
                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P457.3
基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)（GYHY20090627）

Causal analysis and prospects on climate trend of globaltemperature and recent climate disasters in China XuQun(

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

全球氣溫演變趨勢(shì)和近期中國(guó)氣候?yàn)?zāi)害有一定的聯(lián)系;分析表明:1998年以來(lái)全球氣溫基本穩(wěn)定僅有小幅波動(dòng),并未呈現(xiàn)如IPCC (2007) 所預(yù)言的那樣快速升溫,而2005年以來(lái)太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)的異常狀況可能標(biāo)志它今后的長(zhǎng)期減弱趨勢(shì);因此本文首先歸納太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)影響氣候研究的最新進(jìn)展, 發(fā)現(xiàn)其對(duì)氣候的影響絕非限于大氣頂上太陽(yáng)總幅照 (TSI) 的微小變化,而會(huì)通過(guò)平流層臭氧對(duì)更大變幅的紫外輻射的的吸收,加熱作用觸發(fā)平流層-對(duì)流層的大氣環(huán)流變化,結(jié)合熱帶-副熱帶海洋混合層對(duì)太陽(yáng)輸入能量的積累, TSI 01%的變化會(huì)在地球氣候系統(tǒng)中產(chǎn)生放大效應(yīng),這突出表現(xiàn)在東太平洋熱帶-副熱帶海域海-氣作用的響應(yīng),ENSO位相相應(yīng)變化及北極/北大西洋濤動(dòng)指數(shù)的響應(yīng), 大量的觀測(cè)研究結(jié)果支持上述論點(diǎn);近年來(lái)太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)低值期北半球冬季中高緯和中國(guó)均遭受異常冷害侵襲即是明證, 初步揭示出以夏季東太平洋副高強(qiáng)度指數(shù)首先反映的地球氣候系統(tǒng)對(duì)太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)響應(yīng)的一系列氣候過(guò)程; 對(duì)今后10 a全球氣溫趨勢(shì)也作了初步展望。

Abstract:

The trend of global surface temperature change has some connection with occurrences of recent climate disasters in China. Through analyzing, the global temperatures were basically steady with changes of minor amplitudes only since 1998, their rapid rising has not been appeared as IPCC (2007) predicted; however the anomalous condition of solar activity since 2005 may mark a long-term weakening trend hereafter. So present paper at first summarizes the new advances of researches in solar-climate relationship. It was found that the solar effect is not confined to its minor change of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on the top of atmosphere; its UV fraction with significantly larger amplitude can be absorbed by the stratospheric ozone and heated, such heating then modifies stratospheric/tropospheric circulation; associated with the accumulation of the changing solar flux in the mixed layer of tropical/subtropical ocean, the minor change (01%) of TSI out of atmosphere can be thus amplified in Earths climate system, which were predominantly revealed in the response of air- sea interactions in tropical/subtropical regions of the East Pacific, the phase changes of ENSO and the index responses of the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillations. A lot of observational researches support above mentioned views, it was also witnessed by the occurrences of many abnormal cold events in China and other extratropical zones of the Northern Hemisphere during recent winters within the period of present low solar activity. A series of climate processes responding to solar activity first appearing in the intensity index of eastern Pacific subtropical high in summer was disclosed tentatively. Preliminary outlook for the trend of global temperature in the forthcoming 10 a was also made.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

徐群.全球氣溫趨勢(shì)和近期中國(guó)氣候?yàn)?zāi)害的成因分析和展望.氣象科學(xué),2010,(5):582-590 Xu Qun. Causal analysis and prospects on climate trend of globaltemperature and recent climate disasters in China XuQun(. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(5):582-590

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2010-07-06
最后修改日期:
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期:
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说