基于 ＩＰＣＣ-ＡＲ４模式資料的地面氣溫超級(jí)集合預(yù)測(cè)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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基于 ＩＰＣＣ-ＡＲ４模式資料的地面氣溫超級(jí)集合預(yù)測(cè)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P435.2
基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY200906007)，2005年江蘇省“六大人才高峰”項(xiàng)目，教育部留學(xué)回國(guó)人員科研啟動(dòng)基金

The multimodel superensemble prediction of the surface temperature using the IPCC AR4 scenario runs

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利用參與IPCC-AR4的8個(gè)全球氣候系統(tǒng)模式對(duì)20世紀(jì)氣候模擬情景下地面氣溫的模擬結(jié)果，對(duì)其進(jìn)行多模式集成處理。在此基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)這些全球氣候系統(tǒng)模式在各種能源之間的平衡（A1B）情景下2010—2030年的地面氣溫進(jìn)行多模式超級(jí)集合預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，8個(gè)全球氣候系統(tǒng)模式模擬的地面溫度均方根誤差都比多模式簡(jiǎn)單集合平均的大。超級(jí)集合相對(duì)于各個(gè)模式及簡(jiǎn)單集合平均的模擬效果更好，其均方根誤差比最好的模式誤差減小了13℃。在A1B情景下，超級(jí)集合預(yù)測(cè)未來20 a北半球平均地面氣溫將普遍升高，大洋上的增溫幅度比陸地上小。中國(guó)東部地區(qū)以及青藏高原、新疆大部未來20 a氣溫將明顯升高，內(nèi)蒙東部和遼寧西部最高升溫可達(dá)20~24 ℃，其余地區(qū)升溫在20 ℃以內(nèi)。

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Based on the IPCC AR4 scenario runs of 8 models for global climate system simulations of the surface temperature for 20th century, the multimodel consensus simulations of the surface temperature were conducted and the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of individual models, multimodel ensemble mean as well as multimodel superensemble were calculated. In addition, the prediction of the surface temperature in the SRES A1B scenario for the period from 2010 to 2030 was conducted by using multimodel superensemble technique. Results show that the RMSEs of the 20th century surface temperature simulations of 8 individual models are larger than those of the multimodel ensemble mean. The simulation skills of the multimodel superensemble are higher than those of 8 individual models and the multimodel ensemble mean, and the RMSE of the surface temperature simulation of the multimodel superensemble is 13 ℃ smaller than that of the best individual model in the Northern Hemisphere. In the SRES A1B scenario for the period from 2010 to 2030, the mean surface temperature will increase in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increment of the mean surface temperature over the oceans is smaller than that over the continents. 〖JP2〗The mean surface temperature over East China, the Tibetan Plateau as well as most part of Xinjiang will rise considerably in the future 20 a with a maximum increment of 20-24 ℃ over East Inner Mongolia and West Liaoning province. The mean surface temperature increments over other areas of China are less than 20 ℃.

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智協(xié)飛,伍清,白永清,祁海霞.基于ＩＰＣＣ-ＡＲ４模式資料的地面氣溫超級(jí)集合預(yù)測(cè).氣象科學(xué),2010,(5):708-714 Zhi Xiefei, Wu Qing, Bai Yongqing, Qi Haixia. The multimodel superensemble prediction of the surface temperature using the IPCC AR4 scenario runs. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(5):708-714

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