天氣系統(tǒng)預(yù)報效果的量化檢驗方法及應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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天氣系統(tǒng)預(yù)報效果的量化檢驗方法及應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P459.9
基金項目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項（GYHY（QX）200706012），中國氣象局氣象新技術(shù)推廣項目（CMATG2008Z01）

The quantified verification method of synoptic meteorology and the application to AREM

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對中國天氣過程進行了分類，并介紹了一種針對模式對于降水及各種天氣系統(tǒng)預(yù)報效果的天氣學(xué)檢驗方法，將此方法應(yīng)用于AREM模式對2007年降水個例預(yù)報及2005—2007年汛期天氣過程的批量預(yù)報檢驗，得出結(jié)論如下：（1）此天氣學(xué)檢驗方法能夠?qū)Ω黝愄鞖庀到y(tǒng)及降水進行有效的檢驗，（2）對于中國典型高空槽類降水，AREM模式總體上對高空槽預(yù)報較為穩(wěn)定、強度接近實況，對降水預(yù)報穩(wěn)定性相對較差、強度偏弱，槽預(yù)報的較好（差）與降水預(yù)報的較好（差）不完全對應(yīng)，（3）對于梅雨鋒類降水，AREM模式對副高預(yù)報總體偏西、偏北、偏強，對高空槽、降水預(yù)報均總體偏弱，副高預(yù)報的較好（差）對應(yīng)降水預(yù)報的較好（差）。

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The rainfall courses in our country were classified, and a synoptic meteorology verification method was introduced and applied to the verification for AREM prediction of several rainfall cases in 2007 and of 2005—2007 flood season. The results show that:(1) this synoptic meteorology verification method could be used to verify weather systems such as 500 hPa subtropical high, trough, and low-level wind shear and so on. (2) For the high level trough type precipitation of north China, on the whole, the 500 hPa trough prediction was stable and the intensity was close to the observation. However, the stability of rainfall prediction was worse, the intensity was always weaker than observation, the better (worse) prediction of trough was not always corresponding to better (worse) rainfall prediction. (3) For the Meiyu front type precipitation, the subtropical high prediction was always inclinable to further west and further north and stronger than observation, both of trough and rainfall were predicted weaker than observation, and better (worse) prediction of subtropical high was always corresponding to better (worse) rainfall prediction.

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公穎,李俊.天氣系統(tǒng)預(yù)報效果的量化檢驗方法及應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2010,(6):763-772 Gong Ying, Li Jun. The quantified verification method of synoptic meteorology and the application to AREM. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(6):763-772

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