基于ＧＩＳ的浙江省年平均氣溫空間模擬研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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基于ＧＩＳ的浙江省年平均氣溫空間模擬研究
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P468.21
基金項目:科技部農(nóng)業(yè)科技成果轉(zhuǎn)化資金項目（2008GB24160442）

A research on simulating spatial distribution of mean annual temperature in Zhejiang province based on GIS

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高精度的空間化氣溫信息對于區(qū)域熱量資源利用和農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等方面具有重要意義。本文選取浙江省72個氣象站點1971—2008年的年平均氣溫作為數(shù)據(jù)源，以地理信息系統(tǒng)(GIS)為技術平臺，采用逆距離權重法、普通克立格、樣條法和多元回歸法等四種空間插值方法，對研究區(qū)年平均氣溫進行空間插值，通過預設的10個檢驗站點來對插值結(jié)果進行評估。結(jié)果表明：多元回歸法的相對平均誤差、絕對平均誤差、均方根誤差分別僅為0010、0173和0221 ℃，誤差均小于其他三種插值方法，插值效果最好，對于驗證站點的年平均氣溫模擬最接近實際值。

Abstract:

High precision spatial information of the temperature is very important for utilizing the regional energy resource and adjusting the agricultural structure. Based on technology platform of geography information system (GIS) and geo-statistics technology, mean annual temperature of 72 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2008 has been used as the data source, the following methods, such as inverse distance weighing interpolation, ordinary kriging interpolation, spline interpolation and multiple regression interpolation were used to spatially interpolate mean annual temperature in study area. Interpolation results were analyzed by the prediction accuracy verified by 10 validated stations. The result demonstrated that mean relative error, mean absolute error, root mean square error of multiple regression interpolation were respectively 0010,0173 and 0221,its error was less than other three interpolation methods, and the interpolation result of multiple regression interpolation was the best of all. The simulating value of mean annual temperature of validated stations was close to the actual value.

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金志鳳,李波,袁德輝.基于ＧＩＳ的浙江省年平均氣溫空間模擬研究.氣象科學,2010,(6):836-840 Jin Zhifeng, Li Bo, Yuan Dehui. A research on simulating spatial distribution of mean annual temperature in Zhejiang province based on GIS. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2010,(6):836-840

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收稿日期:2009-11-25
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