ＷＲＦ-ＥｎＳＲＦ同化系統(tǒng)的效果檢驗(yàn)及其應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2011年第卷第2期 >135-144. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.00**

ＷＲＦ-ＥｎＳＲＦ同化系統(tǒng)的效果檢驗(yàn)及其應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P459.9
基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（GYHY200806029）；科技創(chuàng)新工程重大項(xiàng)目培育基金（708051） ；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目（40875068）

The tests of WRF-EnSRF data assimilation system and its applications in storm scale events

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利用自主構(gòu)建的針對(duì)風(fēng)暴尺度資料同化的WRF-EnSRF同化系統(tǒng)同化多普勒天氣雷達(dá)資料，檢驗(yàn)其在2003年一次梅雨鋒暴雨以及2009年一次強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣過(guò)程的同化性能。結(jié)果顯示，在兩個(gè)例中該同化系統(tǒng)均表現(xiàn)出有效的同化能力，經(jīng)過(guò)60 min同化的分析場(chǎng)和以該分析場(chǎng)集合做初值的30 min的集合預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果都比較接近實(shí)際觀測(cè)。在同化過(guò)程中，徑向速度和反射率因子的觀測(cè)增量均方差分別達(dá)到3～4 m/s和9～11 dBz。本文考察了初始擾動(dòng)時(shí)全場(chǎng)擾動(dòng)與對(duì)流區(qū)域局部擾動(dòng)，以及擾動(dòng)環(huán)境風(fēng)場(chǎng)與否對(duì)同化效果的影響。試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，對(duì)流區(qū)局部擾動(dòng)相對(duì)于全場(chǎng)擾動(dòng)并沒(méi)有提高同化效果；對(duì)于尺度較大的梅雨鋒暴雨來(lái)說(shuō)，擾動(dòng)環(huán)境風(fēng)場(chǎng)時(shí)同化效果較好。為了考察分析場(chǎng)在降水預(yù)報(bào)中的表現(xiàn)，在暴雨個(gè)例中，以分析場(chǎng)為初值做6 h降水預(yù)報(bào)，經(jīng)過(guò)同化的集合預(yù)報(bào)和確定性預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果都比沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)同化的控制試驗(yàn)預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確。

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An Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) data assimilation system concerning storm scale issues is built under the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model framework and is tested with different types of severe weather events to examine the performance of this data assimilation system in convective scale application. One heavy rainfall event (5 July 2003) and one strong convective event (5 June 2009) are selected for conducting the tests. Results show that the analysis ensemble means at 60 min in both cases and the 30 min forecasts from these analyses are close to the observations. The standard deviations of increment in observation space reach 3 m/s to 4 m/s and 9 dBz to 11 dBz for radial velocity and reflectivity respectively. The impacts of different initial perturbation strategies are investigated in this paper, namely, adding initial perturbations to the entire computational domain and to the limited region around the observed storm area, perturbations to the environmental wind field or not. Results show that perturbing the limited region does not improve the analysis results compared to perturbing the entire forecast domain, while perturbing the environment wind field produces better results in the Meiyu heavy rain case, indicating the more significant impacts of environment uncertainty on relatively larger scale weather events. The impacts of data assimilation on precipitation forecast are also examined. In the heavy rain case, the forecast results show that within 6 h, both the single forecast and the ensemble forecast initialized from analysis obtained through the assimilation of radar observations are better than the corresponding result in the experiment without data assimilation. The above-mentioned experiment results indicate that this data assimilation system has the ability to be applied in storm scale issues. 

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閔錦忠,陳杰,王世璋,鮑艷松.ＷＲＦ-ＥｎＳＲＦ同化系統(tǒng)的效果檢驗(yàn)及其應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2011,(2):135-144 MIN Jinzhong, CHEN Jie, WANG Shizhang, BAO Yansong. The tests of WRF-EnSRF data assimilation system and its applications in storm scale events. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(2):135-144

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