深圳單點(diǎn)氣溫的時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2011年第卷第2期 >200-204. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.00**

深圳單點(diǎn)氣溫的時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)研究
DOI:
                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P457.3
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（40705039，40805004）

A study on the time-lagged ensemble prediction of the air temperature at Shenzhen

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

利用歐洲中心TL799 L91模式在深圳的單點(diǎn)氣溫預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)和深圳本地的氣溫觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)比分析了時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)方法與傳統(tǒng)確定性預(yù)報(bào)的預(yù)報(bào)能力。結(jié)果表明：（1）TL799 L91模式提供的確定性預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)于深圳單點(diǎn)氣溫有一定預(yù)報(bào)能力，它的預(yù)報(bào)誤差總體上有隨預(yù)報(bào)提前量增加而增加的趨勢(shì)，但最近時(shí)次的確定性預(yù)報(bào)并不一定是最佳的預(yù)報(bào)；（2）時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)總體上優(yōu)于確定性預(yù)報(bào)，而且參與集合的成員數(shù)量越多則預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率大體上越高。所以，時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)可在一定程度上改進(jìn)單點(diǎn)氣溫的預(yù)報(bào)質(zhì)量，是充分利用更早起報(bào)時(shí)刻數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)價(jià)值的一種有效途徑。

Abstract:

Based on the air temperature prediction data from the TL799L91 model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the prediction capabilities of time-lagged ensemble prediction and the traditional deterministic prediction for a single point were studied. The comparison between the time series of the observed data at Shenzhen and those from the deterministic prediction/time-lagged ensemble prediction is performed, which shows that: (1) The prediction capability of TL799L91 model can reach as long as 240 h for the air temperature of Shenzhen. Generally speaking, for deterministic prediction, the prediction error increases with the increase of forecast lead time, however, the latest prediction is not necessarily the best one. (2) The time-lagged ensemble prediction does help improve the prediction quality. The accuracy of the time-lagged ensemble prediction is directly related to the number of ensemble members. Generally speaking, the increase of ensemble members will lead to more accurate prediction results.The study of this paper shows that the time-lagged ensemble prediction is an effective way to make use of the numerical prediction of earlier initiation.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

蘭紅平,李磊,馬曉光.深圳單點(diǎn)氣溫的時(shí)間滯后集合預(yù)報(bào)研究.氣象科學(xué),2011,(2):200-204 LAN Hongping, LI Lei, MA Xiaoguang. A study on the time-lagged ensemble prediction of the air temperature at Shenzhen. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(2):200-204

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2010-03-25
最后修改日期:
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期:
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说