21個(gè)氣候模式對(duì)東亞夏季環(huán)流模擬的評(píng)估II:年際變化

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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21個(gè)氣候模式對(duì)東亞夏季環(huán)流模擬的評(píng)估II:年際變化
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P435.2
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41075082）；江蘇省“333高層次人才培養(yǎng)工程”資助項(xiàng)目

Evaluation of summer circulation simulation over East Asia by 21 climate models II: Interannual variability

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利用歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心的ERA40再分析資料, 評(píng)估了參與政府間氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì)第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告的21個(gè)全球海氣耦合模式對(duì)東亞地區(qū)夏季大氣環(huán)流年際變率的模擬能力，結(jié)果表明：（1）模式對(duì)東亞地區(qū)不同要素的年際變率模擬能力整體偏弱， 500 hPa高度場(chǎng)的模擬能力總體優(yōu)于海平面氣壓場(chǎng)及850 hPa風(fēng)場(chǎng)；（2）兩大環(huán)流系統(tǒng)年際變率的模擬結(jié)果評(píng)估表明：就相關(guān)系數(shù)而言，副高強(qiáng)度、面積的模擬能力優(yōu)于印度低壓，多數(shù)模式能正確模擬出副高1970s后期增強(qiáng)的趨勢(shì)；就標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差來(lái)看，模式對(duì)印度低壓、印度低壓東伸槽模擬效果相對(duì)較好；（3）評(píng)估三種季風(fēng)指數(shù)的模擬能力結(jié)果顯示，環(huán)流異常指數(shù)模擬效果略好，但多數(shù)模式都不能模擬出海陸氣壓差、經(jīng)向風(fēng)、環(huán)流異常季風(fēng)指數(shù)的年際變化。

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Based on European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting 40 a reanalysis data, the abilities of 21 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to simulate the interannual variability of atmospheric circulation in East Asian in summer are evaluated. Results suggest that: (1)On the whole, the abilities of the models to simulate the interannual variabilities of different climate elements are poor. The simulation of 500 hPa geopotential height is better than those of sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind. (2)As far as the two main circulation systems over East Asia are concerned, the capability of the models to simulate the intensity and location of the subtropical high is better than that in India low pressure system. Most models can correctly simulate the enhanced trend of the subtropical high in the late 1970s. According to the standard deviations, the simulation of India low pressure system is better. (3)It is found from the evaluation of selected monsoon indexes that the performances of most models in simulating interannual variability 〖JP2〗of the circulation anomalous indexes are better than the indexes based on the the land-sea pressure difference and the meridional wind.

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張宏芳,陳海山.21個(gè)氣候模式對(duì)東亞夏季環(huán)流模擬的評(píng)估II:年際變化.氣象科學(xué),2011,(3):247-257 ZHANG Hongfang, CHEN Haishan. Evaluation of summer circulation simulation over East Asia by 21 climate models II: Interannual variability. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(3):247-257

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