無氣象觀測地區(qū)的電線覆冰厚度推算

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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無氣象觀測地區(qū)的電線覆冰厚度推算
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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中圖分類號:P412
基金項(xiàng)目:國家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2008BAC48B04-3)

The method of calculating the ice thickness on wire in the areas without meteorological observation

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利用湖北省1962—2008氣象數(shù)據(jù)與電線積冰數(shù)據(jù)，建立了各種氣象要素與電線覆冰厚度的回歸模型，該回歸模型充分考慮了形成電線覆冰需具備相應(yīng)的氣候條件。通過動力降尺度計(jì)算了災(zāi)情發(fā)生地的氣象數(shù)據(jù)，結(jié)合已建立的回歸模型，推算出電線覆冰厚度。與實(shí)測電線覆冰厚度相比，推算準(zhǔn)確率在628%~759%。表明依據(jù)建立的回歸方程并結(jié)合動力降尺度的方法，在無氣象臺站觀測的地區(qū)推算電線覆冰厚度是可行的。從全省覆冰極值厚度分布圖上看出，江漢平原及以北區(qū)域覆冰厚度較大，而湖北東西部較小。

Abstract:

Using meteorological data and ice cable data during 1962 and 2008 in Hubei Province, the regression model between various meteorological elements and wire ice thickness was established, in which corresponding weather conditions required for the formation of ice on the wires were taken into account. Calculated by dynamical downscaling of meteorological data in disaster areas, combined with the established regression model, the thickness of wire ice was calculated. The accuracy rate is about 628-759% compared with the measured thickness of ice-coated wire. It means that calculating the thickness of wire ice by the combination of the regression equations and dynamical downscaling methods is feasible in the areas without of meteorological observation stations. The maximum ice thickness distribution shows that the thickness in Jianghan plain and its north is high, while it is low in the the eastern and western parts of Hubei.

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任永建,周月華,肖鶯,高正旭,孫善磊.無氣象觀測地區(qū)的電線覆冰厚度推算.氣象科學(xué),2011,(3):313-317 REN Yongjian, ZHOU Yuehua, XIAO Ying, GAO Zhengxu, SUN Shanlei. The method of calculating the ice thickness on wire in the areas without meteorological observation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(3):313-317

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