臺(tái)風(fēng)“韋帕”(0713)引發(fā)華東暴雨過程的診斷比較

doi:P458.124

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臺(tái)風(fēng)“韋帕”(0713)引發(fā)華東暴雨過程的診斷比較
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                        P458.124
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P458.124
基金項(xiàng)目:溫州市科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2008S0030);浙江省氣象科技開放研究專項(xiàng)(Kf2008004)

Comparative analysis of rainstorm course over east China induced by typhoon Wipha (0713)

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摘要:

采用濕Q矢量、螺旋度、濕位渦對(duì)給華東造成嚴(yán)重災(zāi)害的超強(qiáng)臺(tái)風(fēng)“韋帕”(0713)強(qiáng)降水過程進(jìn)行診斷比較分析,結(jié)果表明:登陸前,上述物理量均能提前指示強(qiáng)降水落區(qū),濕位渦有更多提前指示時(shí)間,螺旋度次之,濕Q矢量最少;登陸后,三者均能表征臺(tái)風(fēng)主體云系降水,濕位渦、螺旋度與強(qiáng)降水有較好對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,而濕Q矢量指示強(qiáng)降水位置偏北,但濕位渦會(huì)出現(xiàn)一定程度空?qǐng)?bào)現(xiàn)象;臺(tái)風(fēng)深入內(nèi)陸后,螺旋度預(yù)報(bào)指示明顯不如濕位渦、濕Q矢量好,螺旋度指示強(qiáng)降水位置偏東,而濕Q矢量指示強(qiáng)降水范圍略偏小;對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)后部強(qiáng)降水,濕Q矢量和螺旋度均未能預(yù)報(bào)出降水落區(qū),而濕位渦仍有較好的預(yù)報(bào)效果。從區(qū)域平均看,螺旋度與濕Q矢量的預(yù)報(bào)指示時(shí)效小于12 h,而濕位渦超過12 h。

Abstract:

Based on NCEP／NCAR 1°×1° final analysis (FNL) and surface station precipitation data, the wet Q vector, helicity, moist potential vorticity (ζMPV) were used to perform diagnostic analysis of the heavy rainfall course induced by typhoon Wipha (0713) which severely affected east China in 2007. The results show that before the typhoon landfall the heavy rainfall area of typhoon periphery can be characterized by the areas of negative wet Q vector divergence, the areas of positive helicity, and the overlap areas of ζMPV1<0 and ζMPV2>0. As far as the forecast lead time is cancerned, ζMPV1<0 and ζMPV2>0 overlap areas were the best among them, followed by helicity positive area, wet Q vector was the worst. After the typhoon landed, the precipitation area predicted by the wet Q vector was located on the north side of real area; the prediction by the method of ζMPV1<0 and ζMPV2>0 overlap areas may be false. After typhoon intrusted inland, the relationship between helicity positive area and heavy precipitation center was obviously not as good as the ζMPV1<0 and ζMPV2>0 overlap areas and the areas of negative wet Q vector divergence. The area helicity was biassed towards the east of real heavy rainfall, the scope of the areas of negative wet Q vector divergence was smaller than observation. The heavy rainfall at the rear of typhoon could not be predicted by the areas of negative wet Q vector divergence and the areas of positive helicity,while ζMPV1<0 and ζMPV2>0 overlap areas still had better prediction effect. With respect to the regional average, based on the areas of negative wet Q vector divergence and positive helicity, the prediction time is less than 12h, but in the overlay area of ζMPV1 <0 and ζMPV2>0 it was more than 12h.

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余貞壽,冀春曉,倪東鴻,樓麗銀.臺(tái)風(fēng)“韋帕”(0713)引發(fā)華東暴雨過程的診斷比較.氣象科學(xué),2012,32(1):101-109 YU Zhenshou, JI Chunxiao,NI Donghong,LOU Liyin. Comparative analysis of rainstorm course over east China induced by typhoon Wipha (0713). Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(1):101-109

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收稿日期:2010-08-16
最后修改日期:2010-10-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-05-16
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