雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)暴雨預(yù)報(bào)影響的數(shù)值模擬研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0014

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雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)暴雨預(yù)報(bào)影響的數(shù)值模擬研究
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0014
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:南京氣象雷達(dá)開(kāi)放實(shí)驗(yàn)室開(kāi)放研究基金(BJG200906);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(GYHY200806014)

Numerical simulation analysis on radar data assimilation for summer rainstorm forecast

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以CAPS研發(fā)的最新版ARPS模式為基礎(chǔ),利用其數(shù)據(jù)同化系統(tǒng)ADAS對(duì)南京多普勒雷達(dá)資料進(jìn)行同化,模擬2009年6月5日江蘇地區(qū)的一次暴雨過(guò)程,進(jìn)行了不同的微物理方案設(shè)計(jì)以及何時(shí)同化雷達(dá)資料的敏感性實(shí)驗(yàn)研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)格距較小且不使用積云對(duì)流參數(shù)化的情況下,選擇warm rain或Schultz微物理過(guò)程的模擬結(jié)果差別不大,且與實(shí)況較為相符,但選擇ice微物理方案時(shí),會(huì)造成1 h內(nèi)的降水量突增百倍;(2)在參數(shù)一致的情況下,模擬研究時(shí)段前3、2、1 h分別同化,可以得到部分主要降水區(qū)域;但同化預(yù)報(bào)的時(shí)間越短,降水模擬的中尺度信息越明顯,對(duì)降水量的控制也越好;(3)依據(jù)以上結(jié)論,在暴雨發(fā)生最初的1 h內(nèi)進(jìn)行每6 min一次的時(shí)間循環(huán)同化,然后積分2 h,可以得到較為精細(xì)的云內(nèi)氣象要素場(chǎng)分布,預(yù)報(bào)的結(jié)果與實(shí)況最接近。

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Based on the newest version of ARPS from CAPS and its data assimilation system ADAS, one rainstorm procedure in Jiangsu province is simulated by Doppler radar data assimilation on June 5, 2009 in Nanjing. Sensitive experiments of different microphysics procedure and different time interval during which radar data assimilation is processed can provide examples for simulation and forecast in this area. The results indicate as follows. (1) In the case of no convective parameterization for smaller grid scale, warm rain and Schultz microphysics procedures are consistent with each other, and both are consistent with the observations. While for ice microphysics procedure, rainfall increased by several hundred times during first one hour after integration began. (2) In the case of the same parameters, main rainfall area can be simulated by choosing assimilation time of 3, 2, 1 h ahead of 09:00UTC respectively. And the shorter forecast period, the more accurate results of meso-scale information, and the better control of rainfall value. (3) By means of what is studied above, first one hour cycling assimilation with 6 minutes interval is used to simulate rainstorm procedure, after 2 h integration, intra-cloud detailed meso-scale elemental fields are obtained, and forecasted results are more closer to observations.

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楊艷蓉,曾明劍.雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)暴雨預(yù)報(bào)影響的數(shù)值模擬研究.氣象科學(xué),2012,32(2):145-152 YANG Yanrong, ZENG Mingjian. Numerical simulation analysis on radar data assimilation for summer rainstorm forecast. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(2):145-152

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收稿日期:2010-11-12
最后修改日期:2010-12-14
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2012-05-03
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