滬寧高速公路高溫預(yù)警指標(biāo)及預(yù)報模型的研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0057

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2012年第32卷第2期 >210-218. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0057

滬寧高速公路高溫預(yù)警指標(biāo)及預(yù)報模型的研究
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0057
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省科技支撐計劃(BE2010750);中國氣象局氣象關(guān)鍵技術(shù)集成與應(yīng)用(重點(diǎn))項(xiàng)目(CMAGJ2011Z17);國家公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY200906037);江蘇高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程。

Study on forewarning indexes and forecasting models of the high temperature weathers on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway

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利用滬寧高速公路實(shí)時監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),篩選出30個典型高溫天氣過程,應(yīng)用WRF模式對其進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬。在對輸出結(jié)果作統(tǒng)計分析后,提取了滬寧高速公路高溫天氣的幾個數(shù)值預(yù)警指標(biāo),建立了梅村、河陽兩站的高溫預(yù)報模型。研究表明:(1)利用WRF模式對滬寧高速公路沿線的高溫天氣過程進(jìn)行模擬是可行的;(2)提取的滬寧高速公路高溫數(shù)值預(yù)警指標(biāo)有:前一日14時的地表溫度T_s≥40 ℃、地面潛熱通量F_l≥350 W·m^-2、近地面相對濕度H_r≤60%、當(dāng)日08時的地面感熱通量F_s為負(fù)值且絕對值≥70 W·m^-2、地面水平風(fēng)速V_s≤3 m·s^-1,當(dāng)各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)同時滿足時,可預(yù)報當(dāng)日會出現(xiàn)35 ℃以上的高溫;(3)采用多元線性回歸方法分別建立了梅村和河陽站的高溫天氣預(yù)報模型,經(jīng)檢驗(yàn)所建模型預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率較高。

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In this paper, 30 typical high temperature weather events were filtered with the real-time data monitored by the automatic meteorological monitoring system on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway and these events were simulated by the WRF model. The output from the model was used to draw the graphics uniformly, and the forewarning indexes of the high temperature occurrence on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were extracted after the statistical analysis. Based on this, the forecast models of the high temperature at Meicun Station and Heyang Station on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were established. The results show that:(1) The selective simulations on the high temperature weather events along the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway by using WRF model were feasible. (2) The numerical forewarning indexes of the high temperature on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway were extracted as follows:in the previous day the surface temperature at 14:00 was above 40℃, the latent heat flux on the ground at 14:00 was above 350 W·m^-2, the air relative humidity near the ground at 14:00 was below 60%, the sensible heat flux at the surface at 08:00 was negative and its absolute value was above 70 W·m^-2, and the horizontal wind speed on ground at 08:00 on the predicted day was below 3 m·s^-1. When all the indexes meet the requirements, the high temperature weather above 35 ℃ on the predicted day could be forecasted. (3) The forecasting models of the high temperature weathers at Meicun Station and Heyang Station were established by a multiple linear regression method and it was indicated that the forecast accuracy of the forecasting models was satisfactory.

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袁成松,嚴(yán)明良,王秋云,包云軒.滬寧高速公路高溫預(yù)警指標(biāo)及預(yù)報模型的研究.氣象科學(xué),2012,32(2):210-218 YUAN Chengsong, YAN Mingliang, WANG Qiuyun, BAO Yunxuan. Study on forewarning indexes and forecasting models of the high temperature weathers on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(2):210-218

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收稿日期:2011-06-01
最后修改日期:2011-09-13
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-05-03
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