南京梅雨特征量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及其對區(qū)域性增暖的響應(yīng)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0093

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2012年第32卷第4期 >451-458. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0093

南京梅雨特征量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及其對區(qū)域性增暖的響應(yīng)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0093
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:"十二五"國家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2011BAK21B04);江蘇省科技支撐計(jì)劃-社會發(fā)展項(xiàng)目(BE2011612)

The statistic analysis of Meiyu's characteristic features and its response to regional warming in Nanjing

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根據(jù)南京整編的1961—2010年梅雨資料,運(yùn)用Pearson相關(guān)法、M-K檢驗(yàn)法、Morlet小波分析等方法對南京入梅日、出梅日、梅長、梅雨量和梅雨強(qiáng)度5個梅雨特征量分析其變化特征和其相互關(guān)系,以及梅雨特征量對區(qū)域性增暖的響應(yīng)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)近50 a南京梅雨各特征量年際差異明顯,其中僅梅雨量存在顯著增加趨勢,其余特征量存在年代際差異。(2)近50 a南京梅雨各特征量均沒有出現(xiàn)顯著突變現(xiàn)象,變化都比較連續(xù)。(3)近50 a南京地區(qū)梅雨各特征量存在多尺度和局地性特征,并且各特征量的顯著周期均包含在2~5 a和6~8 a的短周期內(nèi)。(4)梅雨各特征量中,梅長與出梅日的關(guān)系比其與入梅日的關(guān)系更密切,梅雨量與梅長的相關(guān)程度大于其與入、出梅的相關(guān)程度,而梅雨強(qiáng)度和梅雨量變化接近一致。(5)在南京地區(qū)顯著增暖的背景下,南京地區(qū)入梅日為正響應(yīng)(正相關(guān)),而出梅日、梅長、梅雨量和梅雨強(qiáng)度是負(fù)響應(yīng)(負(fù)相關(guān));梅雨各特征量對春季平均氣溫增暖的響應(yīng)比其對年平均氣溫增暖的響應(yīng)明顯。

Abstract:

Based on Meiyu data in 1961—2010, by using Pearson correlation methods, M-K test,Morlet wave analysis and so on, study was performed of the variation characteristics of Meiyu's onset date, ending date, duration, total rainfall, intensity and their correlation, added with the response to regional warming. The results show: (1)there were apparent interannual fluctuation of five Meiyu characteristic features, among them only total rainfall had the significant trend, and others were fluctuating during nearly 50 a in Nanjing.(2) In nearly recent 50 a each Meiyu feature had no significant mutations, and their changes were continuous. (3)There have been local and multi-scale characteristics in every Meiyu feature, and every feature's significant cycles are included in 2-5 a or 6-8 a short cycles.(4)The relationship was closer between the duration and ending date than that between the duration and onset date, and there was closer relationship between rainfall and the duration than that between the onset and ending date of Meiyu, in addition that the intensity had consistent phase with the rainfall. (5) There have been positive response of onset date and negative response of ending date, the duration, the total rainfall and intensity of Meiyu to the significant regional warming in Nanjing, furthermore, the response of Meiyu's five characteristic features was more obvious to the average temperature of spring than to whole year.

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葉香,劉梅,姜愛軍,張蓬勃,金瓊.南京梅雨特征量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及其對區(qū)域性增暖的響應(yīng).氣象科學(xué),2012,32(4):451-458 YE Xiang, LIU Mei, JIANG Aijun, ZHANG Pengbo, JIN Qiong. The statistic analysis of Meiyu's characteristic features and its response to regional warming in Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(4):451-458

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收稿日期:2011-12-26
最后修改日期:2012-05-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-08-16
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