基于集合預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的降尺度降水預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0065

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基于集合預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的降尺度降水預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0065
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(40975031)

Precipitation forecasting experiments based on the products of ensemble forecast by using downscaling method

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利用降水距平百分率的降尺度預(yù)報(bào)方法和1951—2008 NCEP資料及我國(guó)降水資料,建立了降水距平百分率的預(yù)報(bào)模型,基于T106L19模式的月動(dòng)力延伸集合預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果,進(jìn)行了2007—2009年3 a的預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)和效果檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,基于集合預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度方法對(duì)降水距平百分率的預(yù)報(bào)技巧高于模式降水的預(yù)報(bào)技巧;500 hPa月平均高度場(chǎng)的預(yù)報(bào)技巧直接影響到降水距平百分率的預(yù)報(bào)技巧,平均環(huán)流的預(yù)報(bào)技巧越高,降水距平百分率的預(yù)報(bào)技巧越高;無(wú)論集合成員數(shù)為多少,集合預(yù)報(bào)的結(jié)果都明顯優(yōu)于控制預(yù)報(bào),隨著集合成員數(shù)的增多,預(yù)報(bào)技巧呈增大的趨勢(shì);我國(guó)降水具有顯著的季節(jié)性和區(qū)域性,以江淮地區(qū)的降水距平百分率預(yù)報(bào)技巧最高,華南地區(qū)的預(yù)報(bào)技巧其次。

Abstract:

By using the downscaling forecast method of precipitation anomaly percentage, NECP/NCAR data and the observed precipitation data in China, a forecast model of the precipitation anomaly percentage was set up. Then based on monthly dynamical extended range ensemble forecast products of T106L19 model, forecast experiments for three years from 2007 to 2009 and effects test were completed. The results show that the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage by downscaling method based on the ensemble forecast products is higher than the skill by T106 model. The forecast skill of monthly geopotential height field at 500 hPa would directly influence the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage. The better the forecast skill of mean circulation is, the better the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage is. No matter how many the number of the ensemble members may be, the forecast results of ensemble forecast are obviously better than that of control forecast. As the number of the ensemble members increases, the forecast skill takes its trend of rising. The precipitation has significant seasonal and regional features in China. The forecast skill by downscaling method of precipitation anomaly percentage in Jianghuai region is the highest compared to all the regions, and the South China region followed.

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黃剛,張立鳳,王秋良,關(guān)吉平.基于集合預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的降尺度降水預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2012,32(5):508-514 HUANG Gang, ZHANG Lifeng, WANG Qiuliang, GUAN Jiping. Precipitation forecasting experiments based on the products of ensemble forecast by using downscaling method. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(5):508-514

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收稿日期:2011-08-01
最后修改日期:2011-10-08
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-10-24
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