氣象服務(wù)在江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)減災(zāi)增效中的效用分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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氣象服務(wù)在江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)減災(zāi)增效中的效用分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省科學(xué)技術(shù)廳科技創(chuàng)新與成果轉(zhuǎn)化項(xiàng)目(BM2008163);江蘇省氣象科研開放基金項(xiàng)目(K200904)

Analysis on meteorological services for disaster reduction and benefits increase in agriculture in Jiangsu province

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氣象為農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)是氣象服務(wù)的重要方面,科學(xué)定量評(píng)估農(nóng)業(yè)氣象服務(wù)效益是氣象在農(nóng)業(yè)減災(zāi)增效中更好發(fā)揮作用的有效手段。本文以江蘇省為例,選取大農(nóng)業(yè)范疇的種植業(yè)、蔬菜、茶桑果、林業(yè)、牧業(yè)、漁業(yè)、農(nóng)林牧漁服務(wù)業(yè)為研究對(duì)象,通過(guò)問(wèn)卷制作和調(diào)查,了解不同領(lǐng)域的農(nóng)業(yè)用戶群和專家對(duì)氣象服務(wù)的滿意度評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果表明:2005—2009年的滿意度逐年上升,其中2009年滿意度高達(dá)92.90%;通過(guò)改進(jìn)后的德爾菲評(píng)估法,計(jì)算發(fā)現(xiàn)此5 a的氣象服務(wù)在江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)減災(zāi)增效中的效用越來(lái)越顯著,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益也在逐年上升,總效益約為551.32億元。由此可見,氣象服務(wù)工作不僅得到了廣大農(nóng)業(yè)用戶群以及專家的肯定,而且在農(nóng)業(yè)中產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益也是非常顯著。此外,文中還對(duì)氣象服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的定量評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了有益的探討。

Abstract:

It is indispensable to scientifically and quantitatively assess benefits of agrometeorological service. Taking Jiangsu province for example,crop farming,vegetable production,tea and mulberry cultivation,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,and their service industry are chosen as objects of study. The evaluation on satisfaction of meteorological services from agricultural users and experts in different areas was obtained through questionnaires. Results show that the degree of satisfaction had been steadily increasing year by year during 2005 to 2009,the greatest being 92.90% in 2009. Benefits of agricultural meteorological services,which was estimated by a modified Delphi assessment method, were outstanding in 2005-2009 and the total benefits over the five years reached 55.132 billion yuan. The meteorological service therefore is in favor of both farmer users and experts and helps improve in economic efficiency. In addition,methods of quantitatively assessing economic benefits from meteorological service were also under consideration.

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于庚康,羅艷,凌洋,徐敏,黃亮.氣象服務(wù)在江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)減災(zāi)增效中的效用分析.氣象科學(xué),2011,(s1):31-35 YU Gengkang, LUO Yan, LING Yang, XU Min, HUANG Liang. Analysis on meteorological services for disaster reduction and benefits increase in agriculture in Jiangsu province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(s1):31-35

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收稿日期:2011-12-31
最后修改日期:2012-02-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-09-25
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