1960—2008年淮河流域極端降水演變特征

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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1960—2008年淮河流域極端降水演變特征
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:淮河流域氣象開(kāi)放研究基金項(xiàng)目(HRM200806)

The evolution characteristics of the extreme precipitation in Huaihe river basin during 1960-2008

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采用地理空間統(tǒng)計(jì)、時(shí)間序列分析和趨勢(shì)診斷等方法,研究1960—2008年淮河流域極端降水時(shí)空演變特征:流域大部分地區(qū)全年及四季的極端強(qiáng)降水量、降水強(qiáng)度、強(qiáng)降雨日數(shù)無(wú)明顯變化趨勢(shì);≥15 d的持續(xù)無(wú)降水事件發(fā)生次數(shù)由南向北遞增,平均每年2~5次,冬季最多、夏季最少;≥5 d的持續(xù)降水事件由東北向西南遞增,平均每年1~8次,潢川—正陽(yáng)—鄭州一線的西北部秋季最多,其他地區(qū)夏季最多;40%的站點(diǎn)持續(xù)無(wú)降水事件有明顯增多趨勢(shì),氣候傾向率為0.22~0.60次/a,且大多在1970s發(fā)生氣候突變;30%的站點(diǎn)持續(xù)降水事件有明顯減少趨勢(shì),氣候傾向率為-0.24~-0.70次/a,普遍無(wú)氣候突變;持續(xù)無(wú)降水(降水)事件與年降水總量沒(méi)有明顯的聯(lián)系。

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This paper studied the temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation in Huaihe river basin from 1960 to 2008 with the geo-spatial statistics, time series analysis and trends in diagnosis and other methods. The results showed that the extreme precipitation,precipitation intensity and the days of heavy rainfall had not significantly changed in annual and seasonal trend. The incidents without precipitation lasting over 15 d were increasing from south to north about 2-5 times per year, it happened the most in winter and the least in summer. The events with precipitation lasting over 5 d were increasing from northeast to southwest about 1-8 times per year. In the northwest of Huangchuan-Zhengyang-Zhengzhou this kind of events were the most in the fall, in other areas the events were the least in summer. In the more than 40% of sites the chance with no persistant precipitation had increased significantly. The climate trend rate was 0.22-0.60 times/a. It occurred the most in the 1970s during abruptly climatic change. The events of precipitation reduced obviously over 30% of the sites. The climate trend rate was -0.24 to -0.70 times/a, no abruptly climatic change was found. There were no obvious relationship between persistant (no) precipitation events and the annual precipitation.

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陸志剛,張旭暉,霍金蘭,王珂清,謝小萍.1960—2008年淮河流域極端降水演變特征.氣象科學(xué),2011,(s1):74-80 LU Zhigang, ZHANG Xuhui, HUO Jinlan, WANG Keqing, XIE Xiaoping. The evolution characteristics of the extreme precipitation in Huaihe river basin during 1960-2008. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(s1):74-80

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收稿日期:2010-09-15
最后修改日期:2011-10-25
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-09-25
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