南京雷與雨相互關(guān)系分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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南京雷與雨相互關(guān)系分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省科技支撐計(jì)劃(社會發(fā)展)項(xiàng)目(BE2009693)

Analysis of relationship between thunderstorm and rain in Nanjing

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根據(jù)南京氣象觀測站1951—2007年57 a雷暴日及降雨記錄資料,分析了干雷、濕雷和雨中有雷比率的變化特征,得出:57 a來濕雷明顯多于干雷,干、濕雷日氣候傾向率都為負(fù)值,趨勢減少,但濕雷減少更為明顯;干、濕雷都是夏季最多,冬季最少;南京市從歷年某天發(fā)生濕雷的概率得:歷史上任意一天濕雷發(fā)生概率超過0.2的日期都集中在7、8月,其中南京發(fā)生濕雷最高概率在7月20日,與本省蘇南和蘇中各市基本一致,比蘇北發(fā)生濕雷概率最高日期早5~6 d。南京雨中有雷比率主要分布在0.12~0.25之間,平均為0.19;雨中有雷的比率呈逐年緩慢下降趨勢,但近幾年出現(xiàn)雷暴的比率略有增多;各月雨中有雷比率呈單峰型,夏季比率較其他季節(jié)大。結(jié)合1961—2007年梅雨期資料,統(tǒng)計(jì)得出歷年梅雨期有雷比率分布區(qū)間廣,為0~0.9,梅雨期有雷平均比率為0.26,雖比全年雨中有雷的平均比率(0.19)還高些,但比梅雨所在的6—7月雨中有雷平均比率(0.39)低得多。分析還發(fā)現(xiàn)雷與不同級別降水關(guān)系有差異,與小雨呈負(fù)相關(guān),而與中雨、大雨和暴雨呈正相關(guān),與暴雨的相關(guān)性最好,6—8月大雨和暴雨中有雷的比率高達(dá)0.62~0.74。

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Based on the thunderstorm days and precipitation data recorded by weather observation of Nanjing from 1951 to 2007, thunderstorm without rain, thunderstorm with rain and the probability of rain associated with thunderstorm were analyzed. Results showed that during the past 57 a the event of thunderstorm with rain is more frequent than thunderstorm without rain, both of them are decreasing, but thunderstorm with rain decreases more quickly, they both appear more frequent in summer than in winter. Most of rain associated with thunderstorm, daily probability of which is higher than 0.2, happened in July and August. The highest probability appears on July 20. The probability of rain associated with thunderstorm distributes from 0.12 to 0.25 with the average probability of 0.19, it is decreasing slowly, but the recent result displays an increasing tendency. Monthly variation of the probability shows a single peak in summer. Meanwhile, the probability of thunderstorm during Meiyu period was analyzed, using Meiyu data of 1961, the probability distributes widely, which is from 0 to 0.9, the average probability(0.26) is higher than that of the whole year(0.19) but lower than that of June and July(0.39) when Meiyu is concentrated. The correlation between thunderstorm and different kinds of precipitation differs with each other, it is negative correlation with light rain, but it positively correlated with moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorms. The probability of rain associated with thunderstorm in heavy rain and rainstorms from June to August is up to 0.62 to 0.74.

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苗甫生,鐘穎穎,馮民學(xué),程琳,蔣海琴.南京雷與雨相互關(guān)系分析.氣象科學(xué),2011,(s1):87-93 MIAO Fusheng, ZHONG Yingying, FENG Minxue, CHENG Lin, JIANG Haiqin. Analysis of relationship between thunderstorm and rain in Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(s1):87-93

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收稿日期:2010-09-08
最后修改日期:2010-10-26
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-09-25
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