MEOFIS平臺(tái)的蘇州本地化釋用和氣溫檢驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.00**

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MEOFIS平臺(tái)的蘇州本地化釋用和氣溫檢驗(yàn)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.00**
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:蘇州市氣象局自立科研課題項(xiàng)目(sz201103)

Localized explanation and application of the MEOFIS platform in Suzhou and the quality of temperature forecast

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基于現(xiàn)代天氣業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展要求而開(kāi)發(fā)的MEOFIS精細(xì)化氣象要素客觀預(yù)報(bào)平臺(tái)已被蘇州市氣象局引進(jìn)并業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)行。該平臺(tái)利用T639模式輸出資料結(jié)合蘇州歷史實(shí)況資料建立預(yù)報(bào)方程,采用"動(dòng)力-統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方法",得到了具有精細(xì)化指導(dǎo)作用的要素預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,時(shí)間分辨率為3 h,空間分辨率達(dá)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)級(jí)。經(jīng)客觀檢驗(yàn),2011年7月24 h日最低氣溫2℃以內(nèi)準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)90.3%、日最高氣溫達(dá)74.2%、逐3 h氣溫準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)82.7%,對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)報(bào)有指導(dǎo)意義。誤差分析表明,如果相鄰兩天的日最高、最低氣溫起伏劇烈,對(duì)應(yīng)時(shí)段內(nèi)MEOFIS的預(yù)報(bào)誤差則較大。利用集合經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交分解(EEMD),對(duì)逐3 h氣溫預(yù)報(bào)濾波發(fā)現(xiàn),MEOFIS的預(yù)報(bào)誤差仍具有一波和二波的顯著周期,通過(guò)濾波可使氣溫預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率提高。

Abstract:

Based on the developmental requirements of the modern weather services, MEOFIS (Meteorological Element Objective Forecast Integrated System) Platform is introduced and run automatically in Suzhou Meteorological Bureau. Statistical dynamical forecasting method is utilized to build statistical forecast equations between T639's output datum and Suzhou's local historical observational datum. The refined forecasting elements are obtained with time resolution reaching 3 h, and spatial resolution approaching township level. Objective verification of the forecast temperature in July 2011 shows that the accuracy of daily minimum temperature within 2℃ in 24 h is 90.3%, and daily maximum temperature is 74.2%, while temperature in every 3 h is 82.7%. Therefore, the objective forecast has a guiding significance in the daily weather forecast. The forecast error analysis implies that error goes up if the maximum (minimum) temperatures of the two successive days are varying violently. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is utilized to filter the 3 h temperature. Result shows that the forecast temperature errors from MEOFIS still have the remarkable periods related to synoptic situation, and filtering could still improve the accuracy of temperature forecast.

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趙云武,祁杰,楊福興,王吉濱,唐麗娟. MEOFIS平臺(tái)的蘇州本地化釋用和氣溫檢驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2011,(s1):139-144 ZHAO Yunwu, QI Jie, YANG Fuxing, WANG Jibin, TANG Lijuan. Localized explanation and application of the MEOFIS platform in Suzhou and the quality of temperature forecast. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(s1):139-144

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收稿日期:2011-11-08
最后修改日期:2012-01-18
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-09-25
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