不同分辨率下全球氣候模式的集合結果檢驗

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0129

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不同分辨率下全球氣候模式的集合結果檢驗
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0129
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學基金資助項目(41005057); 江蘇省氣象科研基金(KM201211)

Assessment of global climate models based on different resolution sets of simulation results

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利用參與IPCC AR4的25個全球氣候模式的模擬結果與觀測資料,通過分類集合檢驗氣候模式對東亞大陸氣溫和降水的模擬能力。結果表明:(1)高、中、低分辨率以及所有模式的集合(分別記為Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ類)結果均能較好地再現(xiàn)1901—1999年溫度的增溫趨勢,其中II類的線性趨勢與觀測值最為接近,但年際變率均小于觀測值;(2)Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ類均能很好地模擬出氣候態(tài)溫度的月變化特征以及空間分布型,但模擬值偏小,其中Ⅰ類的冷偏差最小;(3)對于降水的時間演變特征,模擬效果明顯偏差、不確定性顯著;(4)4種集合方式均能較好模擬出氣候態(tài)降水的空間分布型,但模擬值普遍偏高,其中Ⅰ類的誤差最小?？梢?在溫度和降水的時間變化方面,高分辨率的集合結果并沒有體現(xiàn)出相應的優(yōu)勢,但在空間分布上模擬效果明顯要好于其他3種方式。

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Based on the observation and simulation results about surface temperature and precipitation derived from the outputs of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models participating in the IPCC AR4, the assessment of global models' simulation capabilities in East Asia continent has been done by the methods of multi-model ensembles according to different horizontal resolution of atmospheric model. The results are as follows: (1) the results of high, medium, low resolution models and ensemble of all models (referred to Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ Ensemble respectively) are able to reproduce the increasing trend of temperature from 1901 to 1999 and the linear trend of Ⅱ Ensemble is closer to the observed temperature than that of other results, but the interannual variability of all four ensemble results is smaller than that of observation. (2) The four ensemble results can also accurately simulate the monthly variation and spatial distribution characteristic of temperature from 1980 to 1999, but the simulation value is lower than the observation. In addition, the Ⅰ Ensemble's error compared to the observation's is the least. (3) There is a significant deviation in simulation results of time evolution characteristics of precipitation, so the simulation uncertainty about precipitation is obvious. (4) The four ensemble results can reproduce spatial distribution characteristic of precipitation from 1980 to 1999, and the I Ensemble's error compared to the observation's is the least. However, the simulation value is higher than the observation's. Therefore, the I Ensemble has no advantage on the simulation of temporal variation for temperature and precipitation, but the simulation performance of spatial variation is obviously better than that of the other three ways.

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徐敏,于庚康,徐經(jīng)緯,高蘋,姚薇.不同分辨率下全球氣候模式的集合結果檢驗.氣象科學,2013,33(2):160-167 XU Min, YU Gengkang, XU Jingwei, GAO Ping, YAO Wei. Assessment of global climate models based on different resolution sets of simulation results. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(2):160-167

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收稿日期:2012-01-21
最后修改日期:2012-07-03
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-04-25
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