GRAPES_TCM模式對(duì)影響浙江省熱帶氣旋的降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0062

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GRAPES_TCM模式對(duì)影響浙江省熱帶氣旋的降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0062
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:上海臺(tái)風(fēng)研究基金資助(2009ST01);浙江省氣象局科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2010YB03)

Verification of GRAPES_TCM model in rainfall forecasts for Zhejiang province caused by tropical cyclones

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摘要:

基于2006—2009年有熱帶氣旋影響浙江省期間氣象站(包括自動(dòng)站)資料及上海臺(tái)風(fēng)研究所的GRAPES_TCM模式輸出降水資料,應(yīng)用TS和BS評(píng)分方法,對(duì)模式在浙江省的熱帶氣旋降水預(yù)報(bào)能力進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明模式晴雨準(zhǔn)確率和小雨TS評(píng)分24 h和36 h預(yù)報(bào)相對(duì)高,48 h開始隨預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效逐漸下降,中雨、大雨和暴雨TS評(píng)分隨時(shí)效變化趨勢(shì)不明顯,而大暴雨TS評(píng)分有較大的隨機(jī)性。漏報(bào)是影響小雨和中雨TS評(píng)分的主要原因,空、漏報(bào)對(duì)大雨和暴雨TS評(píng)分的影響基本相同,空?qǐng)?bào)是影響大暴雨TS評(píng)分的主要原因。相同預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效的TS評(píng)分隨降水等級(jí)的提高而減小。BS評(píng)分發(fā)現(xiàn)模式對(duì)大雨及以下量級(jí)降水預(yù)報(bào)站次比實(shí)際偏少,對(duì)暴雨預(yù)報(bào)相對(duì)接近實(shí)際出現(xiàn)站次,對(duì)70 mm以上的大暴雨模式有過度預(yù)報(bào)傾向。與寧波市氣象臺(tái)主觀預(yù)報(bào)比較,對(duì)晴雨和小雨預(yù)報(bào),相同時(shí)效的主觀預(yù)報(bào)一般高于客觀,主觀暴雨預(yù)報(bào)TS評(píng)分比客觀預(yù)報(bào)一般高出30%以上。GRAPES_TCM模式對(duì)于影響程度高的TC降水預(yù)報(bào)能力相對(duì)高。20時(shí)輸出預(yù)報(bào)與08時(shí)相比,對(duì)于晴雨和小雨預(yù)報(bào),48 h以內(nèi)差異不大,而60 h和72 h預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率,20時(shí)明顯高于08時(shí)。對(duì)于中雨及以上等級(jí)降水,20時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)TS評(píng)分一般比08時(shí)好,主要得益于漏報(bào)率的降低。

Abstract:

Based on automatic weather station rainfall data across Zhejiang province caused by tropical cyclones and GRAPES_TCM model outputs from Shanghai Typhoon Institute over 2006—2009, verification is done for different rainfall criteria. Result shows GRAPES_TCM performs better for clear-rain and light rain for lead time 24 and 36 h, and then a declining tendency appears for 48 h and beyond, but no fluctuation trend for moderate, heavy or torrential rainfall, while the system shows a random accuracy for heavy downpours. Analysis implies that missing event ratio is the primary reason affecting the accuracy of clear-rain and light rain. Missing event and false alarm ratios keep the same level for heavy and torrential rainfalls, and the former is the main reason for the lowering down of heavy downpour accuracy. TS scores decline as rainfall criteria improves for the same lead hours. BS scores show that the system underestimates light and moderate rain events, but overestimates heavy downpours above 70 mm, and for heavy rainfall, it performs relatively accurate. Compared with GRAPES_TCM forecasts, the subjective forecasts of the Ningbo Meteorological Observatory outperform the model for clear-rain; with TS of torrential rainfalls, which is higher than the model by 30%. The higher the affecting TC grades, the better the GRAPES_TCM performs. Comparison of outputs between 20:00 and 08:00 implies: forecasts for clear-rain and light rain for lead time within 48 h show no difference, but the former performs much better for 60 h and 72 h forecasts. For moderate rainfall and beyond criteria, TS forecasts at 20:00 is 3% higher than that at 08:00, owing to the lowering down of missing event ratio.

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姚日升,涂小萍,董加斌. GRAPES_TCM模式對(duì)影響浙江省熱帶氣旋的降水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2013,33(2):215-221 YAO Risheng, TU Xiaoping, DONG Jiabin. Verification of GRAPES_TCM model in rainfall forecasts for Zhejiang province caused by tropical cyclones. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(2):215-221

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收稿日期:2011-07-19
最后修改日期:2012-04-24
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-04-25
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