吉林省夏季降水時(shí)空變化特征研究

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0078

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吉林省夏季降水時(shí)空變化特征研究
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0078
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(40805026);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY201006006)

Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Jilin province

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摘要:

根據(jù)吉林省46個(gè)氣象站1961—2010年夏季6—8月降水資料,采用線性趨勢估計(jì)、旋轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)(REOF)等方法,對吉林省夏季降水的空間分布結(jié)構(gòu)和長期變化特征進(jìn)行了分析。得到如下結(jié)論:(1)近50 a吉林省夏季降水整體有減少的趨勢,但未能通過顯著性檢驗(yàn);從1980s初期開始,夏季極端旱澇事件發(fā)生頻率有增大趨勢,旱澇交替變化更加頻繁;在降水異常的背景下吉林省大部分地方的暴雨發(fā)生頻率呈增多趨勢;(2)采用REOF客觀的數(shù)學(xué)方法得到吉林省夏季降水的3個(gè)氣候分區(qū),即西北部平原區(qū)、中南部區(qū)和東部山區(qū),這3個(gè)分區(qū)較好地反映了夏季降水的地域差異分布特征;(3)吉林省3個(gè)降水氣候區(qū)分別呈現(xiàn)不同的降水趨勢變化,西北部平原區(qū)降水趨勢減少導(dǎo)致干旱發(fā)生概率增大,中南部區(qū)降水趨勢增加導(dǎo)致洪澇發(fā)生概率增大,東部山區(qū)降水穩(wěn)定少變。

Abstract:

By using the summer precipitation data of 46 observational stations from 1961 to 2010,the spatial distribution characteristics and temporal variation trend of summer precipitation in Jilin province are analyzed with the Linear Trend Estimation and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF) methods. The results show as follows: (1) the summer precipitation shows a decreasing trend, which hasn't passed the significance test in recent 50 a. An increasing tendency with more frequent alternation between drought and flood has existed in the frequent summer extreme events of drought and flood from early 1980s. The summer rainstorm frequency in the most areas shows a slightly increasing tendency in the context of precipitation anomalies. (2) By objective mathematical method of REOF, summer precipitation in Jilin province is divided into three climatic regions: the northwest plain area, the south-central area and the east mountain area, all of which basically reflect the geographical distribution characteristics of summer precipitation variation. (3) The three climatic regions show different tendency in summer precipitation, that is, a decreasing trend of precipitation leads to increased probability of drought in the northwest plain area, an increasing summer precipitation results in increased probability of flood in the south-central valley area and less variable summer precipitation in the east mountain area.

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董偉,劉玉芬,朱丹,朱玉祥.吉林省夏季降水時(shí)空變化特征研究.氣象科學(xué),2013,33(2):229-235 DONG Wei, LIU Yufen, ZHU Dan, ZHU Yuxiang. Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Jilin province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(2):229-235

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收稿日期:2011-09-15
最后修改日期:2011-11-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-04-25
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