一次降雪過程持續(xù)原因分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0114

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一次降雪過程持續(xù)原因分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0114
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY2101060110);江蘇省氣象局開放基金項(xiàng)目(K201002)

Analysis on causes of a persistent snowfall process

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利用多種觀測(cè)資料和中尺度數(shù)值模擬資料,對(duì)2011年2月14日發(fā)生在江淮地區(qū)的一次預(yù)報(bào)失誤的持續(xù)性降雪過程進(jìn)行較為全面的分析。結(jié)果表明:前期的降水導(dǎo)致近地面維持較大濕度,補(bǔ)充南下的冷平流促使低層大氣接近飽和,降雪持續(xù)期間,水汽集中在對(duì)流層低層淺薄的層次中;對(duì)流層中層發(fā)展和維持的強(qiáng)冷平流導(dǎo)致降水區(qū)上空迅速降溫減濕,從而在對(duì)流層中低層,逐漸建立起弱對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定層結(jié)。而疊置其上的穩(wěn)定層則將對(duì)流活動(dòng)和水汽的向上輸送限制在對(duì)流層低層內(nèi),使得水汽和能量得以在一定范圍內(nèi)集中;不斷補(bǔ)充南下的冷空氣強(qiáng)迫近地層風(fēng)場(chǎng)發(fā)生擾動(dòng),形成的中尺度切變線,為這種淺薄層次下的弱對(duì)流活動(dòng)提供了觸發(fā)條件。盡管輻合抬升較弱,但與其它季節(jié)相比,氣溫較低的冬季,在抬升凝結(jié)高度較低的大氣中,水汽易凝結(jié)成云致降水。造成這次預(yù)報(bào)失誤的原因,是忽略了近地層系統(tǒng)的變化。另外,對(duì)補(bǔ)充冷空氣的影響作用考慮不充分。

Abstract:

Based on a variety of observational data and mesoscale numerical simulation data, The weakness of continuous snowfall process forecasting on February 14, 2011 in Jianghuai region is analyzed comprehensively. Results suggest: rainfall at the early stage leads to more moisture near the surface, southward moving cold advection makes the lower atmosphere close to saturation; vapour mainly concentrated in shallow layer of lower troposphere during persistent snow; development and sustainment of the strong cold advection in the mid-troposphere cause the rapid cooling and humidity reduction in upper precipitation area, thus a weak convective instability stratification is built in the mid-troposphere, over which stable layer limits convective activity and upward transportation of water vapors in the lower troposphere, so vapour and energy concentrate in a certain range ; meso-shear line caused by the stirring of surface layer wind forced by continuously supplied southward cold air provides a trriggering condition for weak convective activity in the shallow layer. Despite convergence lifting is weaker than that in other seasons, vapour is easy to condense into cloud and rain with low lifting condensation level for low winter temperature. The reasons of forecasting weakness are due to setting a limit to evolution of the high-level and mid-level system but ignoring changes of the near-surface one, and underestimating the effect of supplemental cold air.

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吳海英,王嘯華,韓桂榮,尹東屏,王靜苒.一次降雪過程持續(xù)原因分析.氣象科學(xué),2013,33(3):308-315 WU Haiying, WANG Xiaohua, HAN Guirong, YIN Dongping, WANG Jingran. Analysis on causes of a persistent snowfall process. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(3):308-315

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收稿日期:2011-10-25
最后修改日期:2012-03-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-06-24
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