副熱帶高壓自身變化周期和形態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)對入梅的影響

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0166

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2013年第33卷第4期 >430-435. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0166

副熱帶高壓自身變化周期和形態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)對入梅的影響
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0166
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)資金資助項(xiàng)目(CMAYBY2011-017)

Influence of subtropical high’s variation period and structure on plum rain onset

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針對2010年江淮入梅預(yù)報(bào)出現(xiàn)偏差情況,利用2008、2010、2011年降水實(shí)況資料和6—7月NCEP再分析資料,分析了預(yù)報(bào)出現(xiàn)偏差的原因,討論了副熱帶高壓水平移動和垂直結(jié)構(gòu)對降水落區(qū)的影響,分析了局地入梅的預(yù)報(bào)方法和參考指標(biāo)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):副熱帶高壓(以下簡稱"副高")和南亞高壓的自身雙周振蕩規(guī)律在預(yù)報(bào)中不可忽略,在對大尺度系統(tǒng)和較長時間系統(tǒng)的變化判斷時,高層系統(tǒng)的預(yù)報(bào)可信度可能更高。另外,在對梅雨預(yù)報(bào)時,副高垂直結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對降水落區(qū)有一定影響,當(dāng)500 hPa副高脊線越過20 °N,副高脊線自上而下向南傾斜時,底層脊線在20 °N以南,不利于江淮地區(qū)降水發(fā)生。副高上下結(jié)構(gòu)垂直度較大時,利于降水落區(qū)北移。副高西脊點(diǎn)自高空到低空呈自西向東傾斜,500 hPa西脊點(diǎn)偏西也不利于江淮梅雨期的開始。

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With regard to the forecast error about Plum rain in Yangtze-Huaihe basin in 2010, this paper, based on rainfall data of 2008, 2010 and 2011, as well as the analyzed data of NCEP, has explored the reasons of this error, discussed the influence of subtropical high's horizontal movement and vertical structure on rainfall region. The research has found that two-week periodic vibration rules of subtropical high and south Asia high can not be ignored in forecasting the beginning of Plum rain, and that when judging the changes of large-scale system and long-time system, forecast of high level system is more reliable. Moreover, the research has also confirmed that in forecasting Plum rain, vertical structure's variation must be considered besides proper attention to advance and retreat rule of horizontal movement. When 500 hPa subtropical high ridge moves to the north of 20 °N, subtropical ridge leans southward from top to bottom, and subtropical high ridge at low level moves to the south of 20 °N, there is no advantage for precipitation in Yangtze-Huaihe basin. As subtropical high remains vertical from bottom to top, it is beneficial to rainfall region moving to the north. When west ridge of subtropical high leans from west to east from high altitude to the low and the 500 hPa subtropical high ridge moves westward, the onset of Plum rain season in Yangtze-Huaihe basin will be delayed.

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劉梅,韓桂榮,張備,金小霞.副熱帶高壓自身變化周期和形態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)對入梅的影響.氣象科學(xué),2013,33(4):430-435 LIU Mei, HAN Guirong, ZHANG Bei, JIN Xiaoxia. Influence of subtropical high’s variation period and structure on plum rain onset. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(4):430-435

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收稿日期:2012-04-24
最后修改日期:2012-07-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-09-06
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