蘭州近50a冬季氣溫變化及其可能原因分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0137

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蘭州近50a冬季氣溫變化及其可能原因分析
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0137
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金項目（40975054）

Change of winter temperature and its possible causes in Lanzhou during the recent 50 years

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利用1960—2010年蘭州等3站逐日觀測資料，分析了蘭州冬季氣溫變化及其可能成因。結(jié)果表明：近50 a蘭州冬季氣溫、日較差、冷日數(shù)、冷積溫及極端高、低溫日數(shù)的變化速率均在1980s發(fā)生躍變。平均氣溫持續(xù)顯著的增溫，在1960s、1970s最低氣溫增溫起主要作用，日較差、冷積溫及極端低溫日數(shù)顯著減少，在1980s后由最低、最高氣溫共同增溫所致，日較差減小變緩，冷積溫穩(wěn)定維持在較低水平，極端高溫日數(shù)顯著增加。大氣環(huán)流異常和城市化共同影響，導(dǎo)致蘭州冬季顯著增溫，二者對增溫的貢獻(xiàn)率分別約為37.24%和62.76%。1980s中期之后中高緯度歐亞上空對流層中層盛行緯向環(huán)流，兩槽一脊的振幅減弱，西北地區(qū)位于中國上空異常反氣旋西部偏南氣流控制下，且同期城市熱島效應(yīng)更加顯著，這些均有利于蘭州冬季增溫。

Abstract:

Based on the daily observation data of observation stations including Lanzhou,Yuzhong,Gaolan during 1960-2010,the change trends and characteristics of winter air temperature and its possible causes were analyzed. The main results show that the change rate of air temperature, daily range, cold accumulated temperature and extreme temperature days of winter in Lanzhou made a abrupt change in the 1980s.The mean temperature had an overall significant increasing trend,which mainly resulted in the increasing of the minimum temperature in the 1960s and 1970s.Daily range,cold accumulated temperature and extreme minimum temperature days decrease signficantly, which were caused by minimum temperature and maximum temperature warming after the 1980s. Meanwhile,daily range reduced slowly;cold accumulated temperature maintained stable at low levels;extreme maximum temperature days increased significantly.The significant increase of winter temperature in Lanzhou was caused by urbanization and atmospheric circulation anomalies,which accounted for 62.76% and 37.24% respectively. With the prevailing of zonal circulation in the middle of troposphere in extratropics over the continent of Europe and Asia after the mid-1980s and the weakening of trough-ridge-trough,Northwest China is effected by the anomalous south airflow, which located the western anomalous anticyclonic over China. Meanwhile, the urban heat island effect is more significant over the same period.These are all conducive to winter warming in Lanzhou.

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孔祥偉,陶健紅.蘭州近50a冬季氣溫變化及其可能原因分析.氣象科學(xué),2013,33(6):664-670 KONG Xiangwei, TAO Jianhong. Change of winter temperature and its possible causes in Lanzhou during the recent 50 years. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(6):664-670

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收稿日期:2012-05-29
最后修改日期:2012-07-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-12-27
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