基于WRF模式的雷電潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0007

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基于WRF模式的雷電潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0007
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金（2010Z004）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41275008）；江蘇省氣象災(zāi)害重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放課題（KLME1004）；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程資助項(xiàng)目（PAPD）

The lightning potential forecast with WRF model

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用WRF模式對(duì)發(fā)生在南京市區(qū)的兩次雷電過(guò)程進(jìn)行了模擬，提取兩次模擬過(guò)程在南京范圍內(nèi)的格點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，分別做雷電潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào)模型建模和檢驗(yàn)兩組樣品。利用江蘇省地閃定位資料作參考，選出49個(gè)對(duì)雷電單體形成有重要影響并且在兩組樣品中的平均值比較接近的強(qiáng)對(duì)流參數(shù)進(jìn)行建模。利用建模樣本對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)因子與變量進(jìn)行多分類Logistic逐步回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，確定4個(gè)對(duì)流參數(shù)建立Logistic雷電預(yù)報(bào)模型，最終利用檢驗(yàn)樣品對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)模型的預(yù)報(bào)效果進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明：WRF模式模擬出的強(qiáng)回波區(qū)域的形狀和面積與實(shí)況的相似度較高，但與實(shí)況相比，整體向東北方向偏移?？紤]此偏差后，建立的雷電預(yù)報(bào)模型的準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到67.32%，技巧評(píng)分達(dá)到0.466，具有較好的預(yù)報(bào)效果。WRF模式高時(shí)空分辨率的特點(diǎn)，使得其對(duì)雷電發(fā)生前的氣象要素資料的獲取更加精確，因此增加模式模擬的精確度，可進(jìn)一步地提高利用WRF模式進(jìn)行雷電預(yù)警的效果。

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In order to further study the feasibility of lightning potential forecast with WRF, the grid point data in two simulated thunderstorm processes in Nanjing by WRF model is selected for two groups of modeling and samples, respectively. Based on the lightning positioning data of Jiangsu for reference, closing to the mean value in two groups of examples,49 intense convective parameters of significant effect on the formation of thunderstorm cells have been used to establish models. Logistic thunderstorm forecast model was established with model sample data, four convective parameters were applied into the model, finally the prediction effect of experience formula by test examples was checked. The results show that the simulation by WRF model can describe the thunderstorm process well, whose simulation shape of strong echo area is similar to the real one, but there is some differences in the location of its center. When this deviations have been taken into consideration, the predictions accuracy reaches 67.32%, and the skill score amounts to 0.466, it means better forecasting effect. The advantage of high spatial and temporal resolution of WRF model can be taken to find out accurate meteorological information before thunderstorms. Thus, increasing the precision of model simulation can improve the effect of thunderstorm potential forecast by WRF model.

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龔嘉鏘,郭鳳霞,田琨,劉冰.基于WRF模式的雷電潛勢(shì)預(yù)報(bào).氣象科學(xué),2014,34(2):206-212 GONG Jiaqiang, GUO Fengxia, TIAN Kun, LIU Bing. The lightning potential forecast with WRF model. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(2):206-212

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收稿日期:2012-10-08
最后修改日期:2013-01-20
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-05-07
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