氣象條件與南京地區(qū)道路交通事故量的分析

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0002

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氣象條件與南京地區(qū)道路交通事故量的分析
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0002
                    
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Analysis on relation between meteorological condition and road traffic accident in Nanjing

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摘要:

用南京地區(qū)2012年逐日交通事故數(shù)據(jù)和實(shí)測氣象資料，在考慮自相關(guān)性的前提下，通過多因子時(shí)間序列分析，構(gòu)建南京地區(qū)2012年道路日交通事故量的AR氣象影響模型，對(duì)工作日和非工作日分別分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：不利氣象條件與日交通事故量，工作日比非工作日相關(guān)顯著，降水、低溫、低能見度等都與交通事故顯著相關(guān)，中雨以下日降水量與日交通事故量呈正相關(guān)，日平均氣溫在2~12 ℃、日最低能見度在200~500 m范圍內(nèi)，都與日交通事故量呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)；但大的降水、極端氣溫、低能見度與發(fā)生交通事故的相關(guān)性反而減小。又根據(jù)不同氣象要素在日交通事故量中的作用大小，構(gòu)建氣象影響逐步線性回歸模型。最后，比較兩種模型的優(yōu)劣，擬合優(yōu)度分析顯示，工作日期間AR模型的擬合效果比逐步回歸模型更好。

Abstract:

Based on the daily traffic accidents data and the observed meteorological data in Nanjing region in 2012, the automatic regression (AR) model of the daily traffic accidents amount was established by multi-factor time series analysis, taking autocorrelation into consideration. Analysis on the data of weekdays and weekends showed that the relationship between adverse weather condition and daily traffic accident amount in weekdays was more significant than it was in weakends. Precipitation, low temperature, low visibility were significantly correlated with the traffic accident. Daily precipitation below moderate intensity was positively related with daily traffic accident amount. The temperature between 2-12 ℃ and the minimum visibility between 200-500 m were negatively correlated with daily traffic accident amount. However, the larger precipitation intensity, the lower temperature and the minimum visibility were all slightly correlated with daily traffic accident amount. Furthermore, a stepwise regression (SR) model was established on the basis of different influences of meteorological factors on the daily traffic accident amount. Finally, the performance and results by the test of fitting goodness were compared between these two models, showing the AR model performs better than the SR model in weekdays.

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夏敏潔,曹杰,周文君.氣象條件與南京地區(qū)道路交通事故量的分析.氣象科學(xué),2014,34(3):305-309 XIA Minjie, CAO Jie, ZHOU Wenjun. Analysis on relation between meteorological condition and road traffic accident in Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(3):305-309

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收稿日期:2013-10-17
最后修改日期:2013-12-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-07-11
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