大豆生育期內(nèi)氣候資源變化特征及未來情景預(yù)估

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0036

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大豆生育期內(nèi)氣候資源變化特征及未來情景預(yù)估
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0036
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（GYHY201306035）；中國(guó)氣象局氣候變化專項(xiàng)（CCSF201318）

Variation characteristics and prospective estimation of climate resources during soybean growth period in Jiangsu

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摘要:

用江蘇淮北20個(gè)氣象臺(tái)站1961-2012年氣象觀測(cè)資料與RegCM4區(qū)域氣候模式，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下的模擬數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，分析和預(yù)估了大豆生育期內(nèi)光、溫、水等農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源的變化特征。結(jié)果表明：近52 a，≥10℃活動(dòng)積溫各年均在3 100℃·d以上。1980s變化較為平穩(wěn)，1990s上升趨勢(shì)顯著，且年際波動(dòng)較明顯。日照時(shí)數(shù)與太陽總輻射呈顯著下降趨勢(shì)，線性趨勢(shì)分別達(dá)到了-4.9 h·a^-1、-7.6 MJ·m^-2·a^-1，2000年之后基本上都低于氣候平均值。降水量在1960s呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，1970s、1980s波動(dòng)較平穩(wěn)，1990s后期開始顯著上升，水分盈虧是以正值為主。在未來兩種氣候情景下，光、溫、水資源的年際波動(dòng)都比較大，氣候極端事件可能將增多。活動(dòng)積溫為正距平，且呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢(shì)，太陽凈輻射也為正距平，水分盈虧以正距平為主。

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By using observation data from 20 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Huaibei, Jiangsu, and simulation data with RegCM4 regional climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the variation characteristics of agricultural climatic resources like light, thermal and water conditions during soybeans growth period were analyzed with mathematical statistics. Results show that in recent 52 years, the annual accumulated temperature in the case of ≥10℃ had been average over 3 100℃. It remained relatively stable in the 1980s, but significantly ascended in the 1990s with obvious interannual fluctuations. Both sunshine duration and global radiation decrease evidently by -4.9 h/a and -7.6 MJ/m²/a, respectively, so tht they tended to be lower than the climatological mean values after 2000. Precipitation decrease in the 1960s; in 1970s and 1980s it was relatively stable, while in the late 1990s, it began to increase with positive water budget. Under the two future climate scenarios, light, thermal and water conditions will interannually fluctuate greatly, extreme weather events will be more frequent and active accumulated temperature will go up with a positive anomaly, so do net solar radiation and water budget. The research is beneficial to soybean production in Huaibei, Jiangsu province, based on better adaptation to climatic change and optimal selection of climate resources.

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于庚康,徐敏,徐經(jīng)緯,高蘋,鮑婧.大豆生育期內(nèi)氣候資源變化特征及未來情景預(yù)估.氣象科學(xué),2014,34(4):450-456 YU Gengkang, XU Min, XU Jingwei, GAO Ping, BAO Jing. Variation characteristics and prospective estimation of climate resources during soybean growth period in Jiangsu. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(4):450-456

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收稿日期:2014-01-15
最后修改日期:2014-03-26
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-08-29
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