人口與GDP空間化技術(shù)支持下的暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性分析

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0030

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人口與GDP空間化技術(shù)支持下的暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性分析
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0030
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:中國清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金贈(zèng)款項(xiàng)目（1213112）；黔科合重大專項(xiàng)字[2011]6003號(hào)；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程資助項(xiàng)目（PAPD）

Vulnerability analysis of flood disasters hazard-affected body under the support of spatialization technology of population and GDP

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基于統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒資料和土地利用數(shù)據(jù)，分別建立人口、GDP空間化模型，模擬南京市浦口區(qū)人口和GDP的空間分布。并結(jié)合暴雨洪澇歷史災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)，探索區(qū)縣級(jí)行政區(qū)域暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估技術(shù)方法，最終獲得100 m×100 m格網(wǎng)的浦口區(qū)暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性空間分布圖。研究結(jié)果表明：（1）人口、GDP的空間化模擬結(jié)果，既與各鎮(zhèn)街統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)保持一致，又反映了各鎮(zhèn)街內(nèi)部的人口、GDP分布的空間變化，可以為承災(zāi)體脆弱性評(píng)估提供精細(xì)化、可靠的數(shù)據(jù)源。（2）浦口區(qū)暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)，分布在東北部經(jīng)濟(jì)較為發(fā)達(dá)的城鎮(zhèn)街道而老山山脈和沿江內(nèi)陸灘涂地區(qū)脆弱性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。

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Based on statistical yearbook and land-use data, the spatialization models for population and GDP are established respectively to simulate spatial distribution of population and GDP in Pukou district, Nanjing. Combined with flood disaster history data, risk assessment technology and methods of the flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability of administrative units at the county level are explored. Finally, the spatial distribution of flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability in Pukou with a resolution of 100 m×100 m is obtained. The results show that: (1) the spatialization simulation results of population and GDP are not only consistent with the statistical data of towns and streets, but reflect their inner-change of spatial distribution, which can provide reliable data for vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body. (2) The high-risk area of the flood disaster hazard-affected body vulnerability is located in the urban streets in northeastern Pukou with more developed economy, on the other hand, the vulnerability risk of Laoshan mountains and inland areas along the beach remains relatively low.

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金有杰,曾燕,邱新法,李東.人口與GDP空間化技術(shù)支持下的暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體脆弱性分析.氣象科學(xué),2014,34(5):522-529 JIN Youjie, ZENG Yan, QIU Xinfa, LI Dong. Vulnerability analysis of flood disasters hazard-affected body under the support of spatialization technology of population and GDP. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(5):522-529

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收稿日期:2012-12-21
最后修改日期:2013-02-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-10-15
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