中國東部夏季降水異常與青藏高原冬季積雪的關(guān)系

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0083

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中國東部夏季降水異常與青藏高原冬季積雪的關(guān)系
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0083
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41205063);江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(BK2011831);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY200906022);江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程(PAPD)

Relation between summer precipitation anomaly in eastern China and winter snow in Tibetan Plateau

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基于中國740站月降水、積雪、地溫資料和NCEP/NCAR再分析月資料,采用相關(guān)分析、合成分析和最大協(xié)方差法,研究了1979—2008年青藏高原冬季積雪異常與長江中下游夏季降水的關(guān)系及其可能的影響機(jī)制.結(jié)果表明:(1)在年際時(shí)間尺度上,青藏高原中北部12月—翌年1月積雪指數(shù)與長江中下游夏季降水呈顯著正相關(guān).在年代際時(shí)間尺度上,1990s—2000s的高原積雪指數(shù)與長江中下游夏季降水具有較好的同位相變化特征.表明高原中北部12月—翌年1月積雪指數(shù)對(duì)長江中下游夏季降水異常具有較好的指示意義,可作為預(yù)測(cè)長江中下游夏季降水年際年代變化的依據(jù).(2)高原12月—翌年1月積雪異常偏多,是長江中下游夏季洪澇的一個(gè)強(qiáng)信號(hào), 12月—翌年1月積雪指數(shù)正異常年與長江中下游夏季降水正異常年有很好的一致性.(3)高原冬季積雪異常影響長江中下游夏季降水的可能途徑是:高原冬季積雪異常通過影響同期及其后春季地溫,再由春季地溫以某種方式把異常信號(hào)維持到夏季.之后,地溫異常又改變了局地地氣熱量交換,導(dǎo)致周圍大氣環(huán)流異常,從而影響到其下游的降水過程.

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Based on the rainfall, snow, ground temperature monthly observation data from 740 stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data from 1979 to 2008, the relationship between winter snow anomaly in Tibetan Plateau (TP) and summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) as well as its possible influencing mechnism are investigated with correlation, composition and maximum covariance analysis methods. The results show as follows: (1) For the interannual time scale, a significant positive correlation exists between snow index during Dec-Jan in the central and northern TP and summer rainfall in the MLYR, whose spatial distribution in Dec-Jan is different. For the interdecadal time scale, snow index from 1900s to 2000s in TP has the in-phase variation characteristics with summer precipitation in the MLYR, Which means snow index in Dec-Jan in the central and northern TP is an important indicator to the summer precipitation anomaly(SPA) and the basis for the interannual variation of summer rainfall in the MLYR. (2) Snow index anomaly(SIA) in Dec-Jan in TP and SPA in the MLYR are in a good consistency, which means the positive SIA in Dec-Jan in the central and northern TP reveals the summer floods in the MLYR quite well but it is poor for the droughts. (3) The possible way, in which SIA in Dec-Jan in the TP affects SPA in the MLYR, is that snow abnormal signal first influences soil surface temperature in subsequent 2-3 months through heat exchange and maintains the effect under the soil in some way until next summer, so as to impacts the weather and climate in downstream of TP.

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杜銀,謝志清,肖卉.中國東部夏季降水異常與青藏高原冬季積雪的關(guān)系.氣象科學(xué),2014,34(6):647-655 DU Yin, XIE Zhiqing, XIAO Hui. Relation between summer precipitation anomaly in eastern China and winter snow in Tibetan Plateau. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(6):647-655

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收稿日期:2013-03-21
最后修改日期:2013-09-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-01-14
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