長(zhǎng)三角盛夏—初秋強(qiáng)降水的延伸期過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)探析

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0055

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長(zhǎng)三角盛夏—初秋強(qiáng)降水的延伸期過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)探析
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0055
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:上海市自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(12ZR1449400);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(GYHY201306030);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41205060)

Exploration of forecast for heavy rainfall in extended period over Yangtze river region

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摘要:

針對(duì)長(zhǎng)三角汛期強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程,根據(jù)不同降水類(lèi)型的特性,提出分時(shí)段建立低頻模型并給出建模流程.綜合分析長(zhǎng)三角汛期強(qiáng)降水期的低頻特性,將低頻氣旋及反氣旋區(qū)分劃分7個(gè)關(guān)鍵區(qū).重點(diǎn)研究盛夏—初秋時(shí)段的強(qiáng)降水特征,在總結(jié)強(qiáng)降水期低頻特征的基礎(chǔ)上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的預(yù)報(bào)模型:1區(qū)或2區(qū)有低頻氣旋維持并發(fā)展;6區(qū)、7區(qū)或5區(qū)存在低頻反氣旋.并且在7個(gè)關(guān)鍵區(qū)中1、2區(qū)的低頻氣旋及5、6、7區(qū)的低頻反氣旋為主要低頻系統(tǒng),起決定作用,而3區(qū)的低頻系統(tǒng)為次要低頻系統(tǒng),起輔助作用.利用該模型提前30 d預(yù)報(bào)出2012年汛期最強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程,并分析本次過(guò)程的低頻系統(tǒng)演變,給出動(dòng)態(tài)演變模型.

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According to the characteristics of different types of rainfall, the low-frequent synoptic map for forecasting model of heavy rainfall in different time period over Yangtze River Delta region was constructed. Based on the comprehensive analysis on the low-frequent characteristics of heavy rainfall over Yangtze River Delta region, the low-frequent cyclone and anticyclone were divided into 7 key zones. Then, the heavy rainfall forecasting model in extended period by Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis was established for the midsummer-early autumn period: Zone 1 or Zone 2 was maintained and developed by a low-frequent cyclone; Zone 6,7 or Zone 5 were provided by a low-frequent anticyclone. These five areas have become the main key areas and the above two low-frequency systems were prerequisites for the heavy rainfall. Low-frequency system in Zone 3 and 4 area played a secondary role, so Zone 3 and 4 were defined as a secondary key areas. The key areas played a decisive role in the forecast, while the minor key areas played a reference role.

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信飛,陳伯民,孫國(guó)武,王超.長(zhǎng)三角盛夏—初秋強(qiáng)降水的延伸期過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)探析.氣象科學(xué),2014,34(6):672-677 XIN Fei, CHEN Bomin, SUN Guowu, WANG Chao. Exploration of forecast for heavy rainfall in extended period over Yangtze river region. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(6):672-677

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收稿日期:2014-04-02
最后修改日期:2014-06-12
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2015-01-14
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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说