歐亞土壤濕度異常對北半球大氣環(huán)流的顯著影響

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0068

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2015年第35卷第1期 >33-43. DOI:10.3969/2013jms.0068

歐亞土壤濕度異常對北半球大氣環(huán)流的顯著影響
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0068
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目 (41075052);國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展規(guī)劃項目 (2012CB956002)

Significant influence of Eurasian soil moisture anomaly on Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

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用44 a ERA40再分析資料的土壤濕度和大氣環(huán)流變量場, 研究持續(xù)性的歐亞大陸土壤濕度異常對后期北半球大尺度大氣環(huán)流的反饋作用。首先,運用經(jīng)驗正交函數(shù)分解去除ENSO遙相關(guān)及趨勢影響后,分析了歐亞大陸中高緯度土壤濕度變率主要模態(tài)的季節(jié)變化特征,及相對應(yīng)主分量時間序列顯示的土壤濕度異常的衰減時間,結(jié)果表明土壤濕度異常的主要模態(tài)在全年都表現(xiàn)出很好的連續(xù)性。其次,對不同季節(jié)的連續(xù)3個月的月平均土壤濕度和500 hPa高度場進行滯后最大協(xié)方差分析,研究歐亞地區(qū)中高緯度土壤濕度異常與北半球大氣環(huán)流異常之間的線性耦合。第一最大協(xié)方差模態(tài)的結(jié)果表明:全年的主導(dǎo)信號是大氣強迫土壤濕度的變化,但在冬季和夏季,大氣中類似于負位相北極濤動的環(huán)流型與之前月份(最長達4個月)土壤濕度的持續(xù)變化顯著相關(guān)。最后,基于土壤濕度變率中心的回歸分析也證實了秋季和春季歐亞土壤濕度,特別是北非副熱帶,歐亞內(nèi)陸和西伯利亞地區(qū)的土壤濕度異常,分別與其后的冬季和夏季的大氣環(huán)流顯著相關(guān)。歐亞大陸土壤濕度異常超前大氣環(huán)流的信號,將有助于改善冬季和夏季北半球季節(jié)氣候預(yù)報能力。

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By using data of soil moisture and atmospheric circulation variables field from the 44 a Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset of European Centre, the possible feedback of persistent changes of Eurasian soil moisture on lagged large-scale atmospheric circulation was investigated. Firstly, after removing the effects of trends and teleconnections of the ENSO, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to examine the seasonal variations characteristics of the leading mode of the soil moisture variation rate at mid-high level in Eurasia and its decay time-scale in the associated principle component time series. Result showed that the leading EOF modes of Eurasian soil moisture anomalies exhibited considerable persistence through the whole year. Secondly, a lagged maximum covariance analysis on the monthly soil moisture and 500 hPa geopential height field for three consective months in different season was applied to investigate linear covariance between soil moisture anomaly at mid high level over Eurasia and atmospheric circulation anomaly in the northern hemisphere, it was concluded that the dominant signal was the atmospheric forcing on soil moisture anomaly throughout the whole year, but in winter and summer, the atmospheric signal resembling the negatively polarized Arctic Oscillation (AO) was significantly correlated with persistently changing soil moisture anomalies in Eurasia continent up to the four months in the leading MCA modes. Lastly, regression analysis based on the soil moisture anomaly centers from the MCA covariance patterns confirmed that spring (autumn) soil moisture in the regions of subtropical North Africa, western Europe and Siberia was significantly correlated to summer (winter) atmospheric circulation. The leading time of Eurasian soil moisture anomaly helps improve predictability of winter and summer atmospheric variability.

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尚國偉,吳其岡.歐亞土壤濕度異常對北半球大氣環(huán)流的顯著影響.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(1):33-43 SHANG Guowei, WU Qigang. Significant influence of Eurasian soil moisture anomaly on Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(1):33-43

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收稿日期:2013-04-25
最后修改日期:2013-06-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-03-13
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