風(fēng)電場(chǎng)兩種超短期風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)方法的效果對(duì)比

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0005

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風(fēng)電場(chǎng)兩種超短期風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)方法的效果對(duì)比
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0005
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省科技支撐計(jì)劃(BE2010200);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY201206026);江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程資助項(xiàng)目(PAPD)

Comparison of two wind speed prediction methods in ultra short-term at wind farm

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摘要:

針對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)所需的時(shí)效在0~4 h,且時(shí)間分辨率不低于15 min的超短期風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)。根據(jù)測(cè)風(fēng)塔實(shí)時(shí)發(fā)回的實(shí)測(cè)風(fēng)速序列,建立了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)風(fēng)速時(shí)間序列外延預(yù)報(bào)模型。另一方面,建立 MM5模式預(yù)報(bào)風(fēng)速與實(shí)測(cè)風(fēng)速的誤差序列,并利用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)作誤差序列的外延預(yù)報(bào),從而利用誤差的預(yù)報(bào)值對(duì)MM5風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)值進(jìn)行訂正,獲得新的預(yù)報(bào)值。綜合對(duì)兩種方法的預(yù)報(bào)效果指標(biāo)分析以及擬合曲線的比較結(jié)果表明:使用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)MM5風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)值進(jìn)行修訂的方法在總體上效果較優(yōu),特別是當(dāng)影響風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的天氣系統(tǒng)變化明顯,近地層風(fēng)速變率較大時(shí),該方法的預(yù)報(bào)效果更具有明顯的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Abstract:

Based on the observed wind speed sequences from the wind tower, a wind speed-time series epitaxial forecast model according to BP neural network was established for ultra short-term wind speed forecasting with 0-4 h effectiveness and ≥15 minutes time resolution. On the other hand, the error sequence of wind speed between MM5 model forecasting and the measurement was found, and the BP neural network was used as the extension of simulation error sequence to correct the MM5 wind speed forecasts, so the new forecasting value was developed. Comparison of the forecasting effect and the fitting curve between the above two methods shows that BP neural network plays an important role in correcting the MM5 wind speed forecasts, especially when weather system changes significantly and the ground wind speed changes very rapidly.

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王彬?yàn)I,吳息,余江,周海,閆瑞琪.風(fēng)電場(chǎng)兩種超短期風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)方法的效果對(duì)比.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(1):71-76 WANG Binbin, WU Xi, YU Jiang, ZHOU Hai, YAN Ruiqi. Comparison of two wind speed prediction methods in ultra short-term at wind farm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(1):71-76

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收稿日期:2013-05-27
最后修改日期:2013-10-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-03-13
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