基于氣候適宜度的夏玉米發(fā)育期模擬模型

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0050

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基于氣候適宜度的夏玉米發(fā)育期模擬模型
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0050
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY200906021)

Simulation model of summer maize phenology based on climatic suitability

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結(jié)合前人氣候適宜度的研究成果,以作物生理生態(tài)發(fā)育過程為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了夏玉米發(fā)育期預(yù)報模型。模型中分別建立了夏玉米溫度、降水、日照時數(shù)適宜度函數(shù),并結(jié)合河南省19個農(nóng)業(yè)氣象試驗(yàn)站的夏玉米發(fā)育期資料,運(yùn)用通徑分析法確定各個生育期溫度、降水和日照的影響權(quán)重系數(shù),計算出綜合適宜度,用來預(yù)測夏玉米生育期。結(jié)果表明,模型能夠較好地預(yù)測各個發(fā)育期(出苗、七葉、拔節(jié)、抽雄、乳熟和成熟)。建模資料的模擬值與觀測值比較的均方根誤差分別為1.5、3.1、3.4、2.9、4.0、4.5 d。運(yùn)用獨(dú)立資料對模型所作預(yù)測值的均方根誤差在1.0~4.6 d之間。

Abstract:

Based on the crop eco-physiological development process and foundings of previous study on the climatic suitability, a simulation model of summer maize phenology was found. Firstly, the suitability functions such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration were established respectively. Then, by combining the above suitability function with summer maize data from 19 agrometeorological sites in Henan province, the affecting weight coefficients for temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration at different development stages were determined with path analysis. Finally, the combined suitability was calculated to predict the summer maize growth. Results showed that the model could predict various development stages (emergence, seven-leaf, jointing, tasseling, milk stage and maturation) quite well. The root mean square errors between the simulated and observed values of the building data were 1.5, 3.1, 3.4, 2.9, 4.0 and 4.5 days respectively. When the independent data was used to test the model, the root mean square errors ranged from 1.0-4.6 days.

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王展,劉榮花,薛明,李樹巖.基于氣候適宜度的夏玉米發(fā)育期模擬模型.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(1):77-82 WANG Zhan, LIU Ronghua, XUE Ming, LI Shuyan. Simulation model of summer maize phenology based on climatic suitability. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(1):77-82

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收稿日期:2013-04-23
最后修改日期:2013-05-25
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-03-13
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