基于C4.5決策樹算法的道路結(jié)冰預(yù)報(bào)模型構(gòu)建及應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0076

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2015年第35卷第2期 >204-209. DOI:10.3969/2014jms.0076

基于C4.5決策樹算法的道路結(jié)冰預(yù)報(bào)模型構(gòu)建及應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0076
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省"青藍(lán)工程"資助項(xiàng)目(2012)

Construction and application of road icing forecast model based on C4.5 decision tree algorithm

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道路結(jié)冰是氣象上規(guī)定的主要災(zāi)害性天氣之一,準(zhǔn)確認(rèn)識(shí)道路結(jié)冰發(fā)生規(guī)律并科學(xué)有效地預(yù)報(bào)是防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的關(guān)鍵問題。以影響道路結(jié)冰的日積雪深度、日最低氣溫、日降水量等氣象要素為主要因子,將是否結(jié)冰抽象成二元分類問題,借助數(shù)據(jù)挖掘中C4.5決策樹算法進(jìn)行分類分析,得到便于預(yù)報(bào)員使用的預(yù)報(bào)道路結(jié)冰規(guī)則集。在實(shí)驗(yàn)部分,選取2004—2013年連云港和嘉定為例,用前8 a的連云港(嘉定)地區(qū)道路結(jié)冰數(shù)據(jù)樣本進(jìn)行分類規(guī)則的學(xué)習(xí),從而得到適合連云港(嘉定)地區(qū)的4(3)條預(yù)報(bào)道路結(jié)冰規(guī)則集,然后用剩下2 a的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),準(zhǔn)確率高達(dá)96.82%(94.87%)。實(shí)驗(yàn)表明采用C4.5決策樹算法構(gòu)建的道路結(jié)冰預(yù)報(bào)模型不僅預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率高、易解釋、方便預(yù)報(bào)員直接使用,而且預(yù)報(bào)規(guī)則與道路結(jié)冰現(xiàn)象的天氣過程及理論一致。

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Road icing is one of the major disastrous weathers in meteorology.Accurately understanding the occurring law of road icing and scientifically forecasting it are the keys to effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Firstly, daily snow depth, daily minimum temperature, daily rainfall amount are taken as the main meteorological factors affecting road icing, and then the problem whether the freezing happened at last is abstracted into the binary classification one. Secondly, C4.5 decision tree algorithm in data mining is adopted to find the classified roadicing forecasting rules that are easily used by forecasters. Finally, road icing rule set is got by carrying out experiment with roadicing sample of data in Lianyungang and Jiading districts from 2004 to 2013. The first eight years' data of Lianyungang regional road icing data samples are used to gain classification rule so as to find four road icing prediction rules fitting Lianyungang district, then the remaining two years' data are used to validate with 96.82% accuracy rate. The same experiment steps are conducted in Jiading area. Three road icing prediction rules fitting Jiading district are got and the validation accuracy rate reaches 94.87%. The above tests show that the road icing forecast model by C4.5 decision tree algorithm can not only predict accurately and easily, but is facilitated directly by forecasters. Meanwhile, each road icing forecast rule is in highly accordance with weather process and theory in meteorology.

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史達(dá)偉,耿煥同,吉辰,黃超.基于C4.5決策樹算法的道路結(jié)冰預(yù)報(bào)模型構(gòu)建及應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(2):204-209 SHI Dawei, GENG Huantong, JI Chen, HUANG Chao. Construction and application of road icing forecast model based on C4.5 decision tree algorithm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(2):204-209

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收稿日期:2014-07-12
最后修改日期:2014-09-10
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-05-08
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