多普勒雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)江蘇一次颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值模擬

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0042

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多普勒雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)江蘇一次颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值模擬
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0042
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究計(jì)劃(973計(jì)劃)項(xiàng)目(OPPAC-2013CB430102).

Numerical simulation of Doppler radar data assimilation on a squall line event in Jiangsu province

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應(yīng)用新一代中尺度預(yù)報(bào)模式WRF模式及其3DVar同化系統(tǒng), 針對(duì)江蘇地區(qū)2009年6月14日颮線過(guò)程進(jìn)行了多普勒雷達(dá)資料的同化試驗(yàn)研究, 在對(duì)雷達(dá)資料進(jìn)行嚴(yán)格質(zhì)量控制的基礎(chǔ)上, 設(shè)計(jì)一系列尺度化因子優(yōu)化調(diào)整及同化頻率的敏感性試驗(yàn)。試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明:同化后初始場(chǎng)得到不同程度改善, 適當(dāng)?shù)某叨然蜃釉O(shè)定, 能夠有效改進(jìn)對(duì)模式初始場(chǎng)中700 hPa風(fēng)場(chǎng)和850 hPa溫度場(chǎng)以及組合反射率因子等要素的分析, 進(jìn)而改善短時(shí)降水預(yù)報(bào)和風(fēng)暴的垂直結(jié)構(gòu)配置;并且同化頻率越高, 對(duì)初始場(chǎng)的組合反射率因子分布與觀測(cè)更為接近, 短時(shí)降水預(yù)報(bào)越準(zhǔn)確。

Abstract:

A new generation mesoscale WRF forecast model and its 3DVar assimilation system were used to conduct assimilation research of Doppler radar data on a squall line event on June 14, 2009 in Jiangsu province. Based on strict quality control on the radar data, a series of sensitivity experiments about optimized adjustment of scale factors and assimilation frequency were designed and carried out. It is shown that the optimized adjustment of scale factors and assimilation frequencies can lead to the better performances of initial conditions. Specifically, the appropriate scale factors setting can effectively improve the distribution characteristics of 700 hPa wind, 850 hPa temperature and composite reflectivity in initial conditions, then further improve the short-term precipitation forecast and vertical structure configuration of storm. Moreover, the higher assimilation frequency makes the distribution of composite reflectivity in initial conditions closer to the observation and makes short-term rainfall prediction more accurate.

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閔錦忠,王修瑩,沈菲菲,周北平.多普勒雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)江蘇一次颮線過(guò)程的數(shù)值模擬.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(3):248-257 MIN Jinzhong, WANG Xiuying, SHEN Feifei, ZHOU Beiping. Numerical simulation of Doppler radar data assimilation on a squall line event in Jiangsu province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(3):248-257

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收稿日期:2015-03-05
最后修改日期:2015-04-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-07-03
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