多普勒天氣雷達(dá)1 h降水產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量評(píng)估

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0014

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多普勒天氣雷達(dá)1 h降水產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量評(píng)估
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0014
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:教育部長(zhǎng)江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)展計(jì)劃;江蘇省科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(BE2009680);江蘇省高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程;國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目(41105077);江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(BK2012859)

Quality evaluation of Doppler radar product in Taihu Lake Basin

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為評(píng)估多普勒天氣雷達(dá)1 h降水量(OHP)產(chǎn)品在降水預(yù)報(bào)中的質(zhì)量, 從南通新一代多普勒天氣雷達(dá)的體掃資料及其覆蓋范圍內(nèi)太湖流域34個(gè)雨量站的同期逐小時(shí)降水資料中選取了19個(gè)降水個(gè)例。以空?qǐng)?bào)率、漏報(bào)率、準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)臨界指數(shù)、平均誤差、平均絕對(duì)誤差和均方根誤差等, 為評(píng)估降水預(yù)報(bào)質(zhì)量的指標(biāo)。根據(jù)雨量站實(shí)測(cè)日降水量(P)和1 h降水量(P₁)大小分級(jí), 對(duì)不同情況下的OHP進(jìn)行質(zhì)量評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明:(1)OHP的空?qǐng)?bào)率和漏報(bào)率較高, 導(dǎo)致整體的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)臨界指數(shù)偏低。(2)與不同的P和P₁量級(jí)相對(duì)應(yīng), 不同的OHP預(yù)報(bào)質(zhì)量有明顯差異。除P<10 mm時(shí)和P₁<1 mm時(shí)稍有高估外, 其他量級(jí)都存在低估, 且隨著P的增加, 空?qǐng)?bào)率和漏報(bào)率都減小。(3)對(duì)2007年9月18日的降水個(gè)例分析表明:OHP與實(shí)測(cè)的落區(qū)基本一致, 但降水強(qiáng)度上有偏差。不同站點(diǎn)的雨強(qiáng)偏差不同, 距南通雷達(dá)站100 km左右的OHP誤差較小。

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the quality of Doppler radar's One Hour Precipitation (OHP) product in the precipitation forecast, 19 rainfall cases were selected from the volume scan data of the new generation Doppler radar in Nantong City and the corresponding hourly precipitation data covering 34 rain gauges in Taihu Lake Basin, moreover, False Alarm Rate (FAR), Missing Alarm Rate (MAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Mean Error, Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error were selected as the evaluation indices of the OHP product quality. According to the grades of the daily and hourly rainfall from the observed data, the quality of OHR in different cases were evaluated. Results showed that: (1) the high FAR and MAR of radar's 1 h accumulated precipitation led to the low integral CSI . (2) The forecast quality of radar's 1 h accumulated precipitation at different rainfall rates was diversitfied obviously corresponding to the different daily and hourly rainfall derived from the observed data. The underestimation was common event except for the daily and hourly rainfall below 10 mm and 1 mm. The FAR and MAR decrease with the daily rainfall increasing. (3) The analysis on a rainfall case on September 18, 2007 indicated that the radar's 1 h accumulated rainfall area was consistent with the actual rainfall area, but in the case of precipitation intensity a certain of deviation was evident. The deviation of each gauge was different, and the errors of gauges about 100 km from Nantong radar station were the least.

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李晶,包云軒,蔣義芳,高玉芳,于鑫.多普勒天氣雷達(dá)1 h降水產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(3):340-345 LI Jing, BAO Yunxuan, JIANG Yifang, GAO Yufang, YU Xin. Quality evaluation of Doppler radar product in Taihu Lake Basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(3):340-345

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收稿日期:2013-08-26
最后修改日期:2014-02-20
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2015-07-03
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